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September Somnolence

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by whamby, Aug 25, 2018.

  1. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    Nothing looks very exciting through the first week or September... no chance of any kind of tropical activity in the SE. Southern Plains and Texas look to go 'last hurrah' for heat... everyone else normal, but not BN:
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    2gkvwk.jpg
     
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  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Great thread title btw, I legitimately had no idea what Somnolence meant til now.
     
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  4. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    The JMA, EPS, and CFS are all sniffing out a major regime change in the Atlantic during the 2nd half of September that would favor more tropical cyclone activity, so don't let your guard down just yet. I've noticed that -AMO seasons like this tend to peak later than normal, and this may be because the EP is more active in these years and thus it's harder for the Atlantic to generate storms closer to the East Pacific's climatological peak that comes in late August.


    Y201808.D2212_gl0.png
     
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  5. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    There are 9 innings in a game, and 3 batters in the bottom; the 9th month is September and there will be batters in the box ... and another on deck if it goes an extra inning ... Good post Webb; game's nowhere near over in the middle of the 8th ...
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2018
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  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Ahhh yes, seeing snowfall in the north-central Rockies warms my heart because it's a pretty clear indication that summer is fixing to come to an end.
     
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  7. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    This wave around 35-40W in the eastern Atlantic certainly has a chance to become a potential problem spot down the road in the Gulf &/or SW Atlantic...

     
  8. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    I'm ready. Hasn't been a bad summer by any means here, but it's hard to get the unction to light the forge in this heat.
     
  9. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Thankfully I don't think this ridged pattern has the umph to match 2007 where rdu went 101 and 99 in back to back days but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see rdu record a 94-97 type high during the first 10 days of September. I agree with webber about a backing away from ridging as we move through September and I think we could see that starting as early as 9/10 but more likely 9/15. I have some ideas that we could get into a highly amplified pattern in the 2nd half of the month but it's pure speculation.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  10. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Per my local AFD, the ridge that was supposed to break down and allow a front to stall over the Carolinas for next weekend and bring a wetter pattern, is not looking like it’s going to make it here now and the ridge re strengthens! Looks like we could be in for a long hot dry spell, with maybe a scattered storm Wednesday or Thursday and then another long dry stretch of 90s plus!
    #ILOVEFALL
     
  11. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Entertainment only.
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Area 51 and surrounding environs????
    :eek:
     
  13. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    You forgot your favorite meme.... the :( icon
     
  14. Brent

    Brent Member

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    so ready...

    and yes I also think the wave at 35 W could be an issue down the road, I really think the Atlantic will begin to wake up soon
     
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  15. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    I’m gonna make that my avatar!:(
     
  16. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    1Weather app forecasts a major hurricane near the Labor Day Holiday believe it or not
     
  17. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Right now, one can find a model that shows whatever ... but something's gonna brew ... just the what, when and where are nowhere near crystal ...
     
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  18. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] gfs has been hinting at a little nice pattern change second week of September. Let's hope so, I'm ready for changes.
     
  19. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    SE ridge flexing already! Getting warmed up for winter!:(
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2018
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  20. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    I'll send you a $1 for some optimism in exchange ... :D
     
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  21. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    :( You forgot again. You're slacking off. LOL
     
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  22. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Hmmmmm ... Only a probability, but widespread nonetheless ...

    814prcp.new.gif
     
  23. Brent

    Brent Member

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    that cold front at the end of the GFS...

    I'm so ready :cool:
     
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  24. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    Is it on tonight's run too? Haven't checked yet.
     
  25. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    last Sept featured a weirdly cool first half, then a hot second half... Those remnants of Irma passing over me with temps in the mid 50s are hard to forget. Top 10 strange weather events of my life...
     
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  26. Brent

    Brent Member

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    I didn't really look at the 18z but yeah it looks pretty good

    Oddly it doesn't have much in the Atlantic like the other models though it does quickly form a CV storm by the weekend
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
  27. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    hmm... nrgjeff, webb, and others predicted this coming to pass and here one global model is picking it up.. I'm beginning to think Asia, MJO and far upstream atmospheric phenomena mean something to North American weather... ;)
    [​IMG]
     
  28. Brent

    Brent Member

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    uh the end of the Euro was very interesting... if it's right hurricane season is about to take off next week

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
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  29. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    we all talk about analogs for winter storm patterns, etc... but any good analogs for this year's tropical (lack of) season?
     
  30. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Since 2000 3 seasons have failed to produce a hurricane from mid July to now 2001 2002 and 2013
     
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