Severe Mid-late February into March Severe Weather Threat(s)

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Jan 5, 2017
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Desert Southwest ?
www.webberweather.com
Lol, you can even see how the ECMWF is trying to key in on individual storms this far out w/ our system ~ day 8-9... When all the coarse resolution global models are able to sniff out mesoscale features like this so far in advance (like they did before the historic tornado outbreak in GA last month) it's probably worth paying attention to...
ecmwf_slp_precip_se_34.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol, you can even see how the ECMWF is trying to key in on individual storms this far out w/ our system ~ day 8-9... When all the coarse resolution global models are able to sniff out mesoscale features like this so far in advance (like they did before the historic tornado outbreak in GA last month) it's probably worth paying attention to...
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Yes Eric. I am very worried about this for areas of MS, AL, FL, NW SC, Easten/Parts of NC. TN isn't out of the woods either. I think you should start the severe/mid range severe thread.
 
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I constructed a 200mb vector wind composite of the 20 worst February-March tornado outbreaks in the southern US and compared them against what's currently forecast by both the GFS and European ensemble suites... This is generally assumed to be an apples-to-apples comparison given that both are heavily dampened by event-event variability and ensemble member uncertainty respectively. The composite mean 250mb wind of these 20 tornado outbreaks maximizes ~ 80-90 knots (40-45 knots) while the forecast means of the GEFS and EPS are already predicting a jet streak maximum of ~100-120 knots 2 weeks from now. Lol
compday.9mAwS2AA9V.gif
eps_uv200_noram_57.png
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I never hope a threads fails. Seeing is how it's your first thread over here, I actually hope this one fails so we Don't have to deal with a threat . with that said The severe threat next week is real and you have been all over it for well over a week. It would be nice for the south to get a break and not hAve to worry about severe for a while. However, with the STJ shooting across the region like a damn NASA rocket it does not look like we will get that break.
 
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todays 12z euro is a very vilotale situation... if this plays out...as eric says... this isn't far away from a triple phaser... teleconnections say this slp should trend further north than todays runs... this look is very serious... both eyebrows raised from me... euro you have my attention sir
 
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Shawn said:
Yeah, so basically Eric just said the GEFS and EPS agree in a stronger chance of TOR outbreak based on their current forecast versus historic analogs.

Wonderful. :| Unlike Winter, this is likely to get more favorable as we approach.
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Favorable? Yikes ... :(
Trying to locate some RH maps for the operative time frame just to give an excuse to go buy some Pepto ...
 
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The SPC has upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe wx tomorrow across southeastern Texas. Conditions are generally conducive for damaging, winds, hail, and even a few tornadoes, granted as they have mentioned in their discussion, the weakening of the winds in the mid-levels may inhibit the development of long-lived, strong tornadoes but we can't rule them out. This is just the appetizer...
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Storm5 said:
I never hope a threads fails. Seeing is how it's your first thread over here, I actually hope this one fails so we Don't have to deal with a threat . with that said The severe threat next week is real and you have been all over it for well over a week. It would be nice for the south to get a break and not hAve to worry about severe for a while. However, with the STJ shooting across the region like a damn NASA rocket it does not look like we will get that break.
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Same, I don't want to see this event unfold. It has been too long since we have seen a massive line like what the Euro is showing come through the southeast. I hope it does what the 12Z GFS shows, completely evaporating before hitting here. Unfortunately Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas look to be the worst areas at the moment.
 
Uhm. You just look at H5, temps, dews, and uhm. Severe parameters as we get closer. Right now, we are just looking at the options from the overall larger scale of things. Intricate stuff later.
 
Shawn said:
Uhm. You just look at H5, temps, dews, and uhm. Severe parameters as we get closer. Right now, we are just looking at the options from the overall larger scale of things. Intricate stuff later.
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Thanks! and I get the "Uhm"! :oops:

maybe a lead balloon idea ... polite regrets ....
 
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