This storm has already been mind boggling and it still hasn’t formed yet!
By the way, I’m not yet sure this run is OTS as a high to the north may block it and allow it to hit NC.
24HR , 48HR AND 72HR NHC FORECAST MAP
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Icon for the win....well at least for today. LolIt is a reasonable possibility in my mind because the east shift of the consensus hasn’t stopped yet. Remember when the ICON was of the operational on its own with the just off E coast of FL? And now look where we are. The staying offshore scenario has to be considered. This is partially supported by some 18Z EPS members staying well offshore.
We should copy your post so we can bring it back out every time. Well said...Once again 50-100 miles one way or the other would have huge implications for the coast.....on the Euro if the storm stalls 50-100 miles further west before moving north it could go from just off Hatteras to the SC/NC border tracking up I-95....same with the UKIE.....if these models are right and a large hurricane forms off Florida its going to be a long week....
The 0Z Euro ensemble says that the operational's big shift east is quite possibly for real. It has a huge shift east vs the 18Z with nearly all staying on the E side of FL initially. Then after getting blocked/slowed by the very strong high to the north while they were off of n FL/GA/S SC, they do all sorts of things once moving again from turning E OTS to turning N up into SC or NC to skirting the NE US to turning W to WNW into SC, GA, or N FL.
Looks like Euro initialized from this position at 00z.
The drama will be possibly having 2 on the east coast at the same time.....crazy timesQuite a bit further NW and at 120 hrs vs 180 hrs at 00Z.....06Z is closer to the Ukie/Euro timeline, in fact the ICON track this run is pretty darn close to the Ukie as well...hopefully that means it follows it OTS on later runs...
00Z Icon run at 180 hrs......the 06Z run is much further NW and 60 hr faster
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