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Pattern Jarring January

Has the storm this time.
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this thing has decent phasing potential if this look can remain. everything is moving so fast though I find it hard to believe we don't see massive changes moving forward for good or bad.
 
I'd be worried about this getting too amped over being crushed. The southern s/w is not changing much run to run so it must be sampled pretty well, however the northern stream is. For instance the center of the northern trough is over Ohio on the 12z, on the 18z it is over western MI.

Remember the biases, the models love to over strengthen the northern trough every time.
 
Storm5 said:
Still too late with the SW needs to be quicker everything just shunted to the south
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That's a winning look right there! All day everyday!
 
I love it when the Kuchera ratios gives you more snow than 10:1. We rarely get that kind of dry powder in the south.
 
Arcc said:
I'd be worried about this getting too amped over being crushed. The southern s/w is not changing much run to run so it must be sampled pretty well, however the northern stream is. For instance the center of the northern trough is over Ohio on the 12z, on the 18z it is over western mi

Remember the biases, the models love to over strengthen the northern trough every time.
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I agree with this 100 percent . We’ve seen the northern stream bias on the gfs for years . Problem then becomes if it’s too amped you have 100 other things to worry about most notable would be an inland runner and if that’s the case we are dead in arrival
 
Hope every one has had a Merry Christmas. Been a few years, but man did it feel like Christmas today. Already sitting at freezing at sunset. Been in the mid 30s most of the day with a pretty good cloud deck.
Lol at all the pessimism about torchmas etc. We where all doomed this time last week if yall remember the discussions. Anyway winter is off to a fantastic start. BN Nov,now Dec will end up BN up this way. 2 months in a row lol. Also most of us have seen snow and accumulating snow, with several more prospects of frozen on the horizon. So enjoy whatever we get dealt. It sure beats the pants off the past several years,definitely Decembers.
 
Round 4 on the GFS looks to be a little too warm. This cold pattern can only last so long.
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