SimeonNC
Member
Decided to pull the trigger and make the thread, mods feel free to lock it if you feel like it's too soon.
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January 6th-7th Potential Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
RoddyPiper
Member
Perfect! The family is ready for a 6 hour trip to Banner Elk, just need the NC experts to chime in on whether that's a good choice or not.
SimeonNC
Member
They may end up seeing more sleet than snow or ZR if things trend cold enough, the RGEM gives the northern mountains sleet.
RoddyPiper
Member
I figured Boone to Beech would be the only chance for flakes.
Oconeexman
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Gfs not too far off from the Nam saturday
Icon has a couple hours of ZR here
the GFS for the first time brings freezing rain down to northern Charlotte metro
the GFS for the first time brings freezing rain down to northern Charlotte metro
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This may go the other way but if the GFS is already deepening the CAD push….
accu35
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Could there be any severe weather along the gulf coast?
W
WSW
Guest
tennessee storm
Member
Yes sir
HDGator
Member
Might be interesting here.
Heck the RGEM gives me 2hrs of light zr Sat morning, let's go! Lol Of course it will be a decent memory after 3" of rain falls but whatever
Loganville Winter
Member
How much does what happens tonight affect Saturday and what happens Saturday affect Tuesday? Especially in the borderline areas and Charlotte, Atlanta metros.
NCSNOW
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First chance at something other than rain or frost accumulating in 2 years. Im with you
iGRXY
Member
EURO is hell bent on an Apps cutter still before transferring to the Peedee region of SC.
Not sure I'd call it an Apps cutter, gets shunted east pretty quick and may not be done adjusting. When it comes to CAD, as bad as the NAM can certainly be, it along with other hi-res models will have a much better handle on boundary layer temps/icing potential. Never under estimate the power of CAD
gawxnative
Member
Ok first to qualify" I am not a Met, but have some 50 years of tracking weather here in Metro ATL. The system today/tonight will have minimal impact on the system for the 6th -7th. What that will be "riding on" That will be determined by the depth/strength of the CAD/Wedge for this area. A variation of just a 100 or so miles in the placement of the Mid Atlantic High (or it being stronger than progged) or a northward shift in the track of the Low by a little as 50 miles can change mid 30s and rain to 30 and ZR. This will not be a 'ground type" ZR event as ground temps will remain above freezing. It could be a significant "tree/power line" ZR Event as I have seen in the past (Jan 1973)
Next weeks system as of now has a greater threat of severe vs winter issues due to strength of the Low and the much higher dynamics in place. That will depend on the degree of WAA and related CAPE.
severestorm
Member
Euro colder
iGRXY
Member
Oh I definitely don't think it's right. I doubt the LP makes above Macon, Georgia at best before it rides around the CAD dome. Problem is you can't trust the surface depiction because it allows warm surface level temps to be further north than reality.