It just got designated. Some of the models are developing this in the Bay of Campeche.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the
next few days. If the system remains over water, a tropical
depression could form before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
GFS does not form anything.
Yeah, the rich get richer, or the flooded get more flooded! Wish we could get some of that in the desert SE!
Yeah, the rich get richer, or the flooded get more flooded! Wish we could get some of that in the desert SE!
That was my post before it was removedThat would get caught up in the flow into the SE, well the best moisture would anyways since the right quadrant of TCs always have the best synoptic scale forcing for ascent
That was my post before it was removed
That was my post before it was removed
769
ABNT20 KNHC 012334
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
That would get caught up in the flow into the SE, well the best moisture would anyways since the right quadrant of TCs always have the best synoptic scale forcing for ascent