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Worried about a sharp turnaround and ejection to the east with that front swinging in. Lower southeast coast is good but SC and NC is a little more uncertain in my very unprofessional opinionGFS runs what looks like a cat 1 cane through here. EURO looks like messy TS. looks like there could be some much beneficial rains to the SE though.
80/90 as of 8 PM.Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle
part of this week where additional development is possible.
Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and in products from your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Yeah, we've got VA Tech/Duke tix on Saturday and it's a 50/50 shot if it's east of us by noon.I just want it east of Richmond by 8 am Saturday morning, which is starting to appear unlikely.... oh well should be a fun run!
What do you think the ceiling is?Going to be a fascinating watch over the next 48 hours from a weather nerd perspective as it sheds the front and becomes tropical. It could make a run at a formidable system if it can go tropical quickly
980-985. Just not sure how quickly it's going to shed the non tropical characteristics and go to town. If the system were an independent tropical system and an independent upper low we could end up with a Kate 1985 scenario but I don't think we get that hereWhat do you think the ceiling is?