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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

:D:D:D:cool::cool::cool::p:p:p

two_atl_5d0.png
 
Gfs
Gfs para
Cmc

All have a system now . Different tacks but they all have it


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Gfs has a beast for a storm. Watch this one very close. One of those situation where either it rides up the east coast or slides right into the eastern Gulf. Not wishcasting just seen this movie before
 
I have a suspicion about why the Euro (EPS) is not developing it while the ukmet & GFS (GEFS) are. Consider how different are the EPS and GEFS MJO forecasts right now. There are often differences but this case is larger than normal I think. The EPS usually ends up verifying more closely to reality though it will often end up somewhere in between when there are large differences. The GEFS has it staying inside the circle in phase 2 (nearly stationary) before eventually doing an unusual backtrack (clockwise rotation on the graph) toward phase 1. OTOH, the EPS has it rotating in the common counterclockwise direction into phase 3 very quickly followed by phases 4 & 5. The Ukmet, which goes out only 6 days, is in agreement with the GFS in leaving it nearly stationary for those 6 days. The JMA is closer to the GEFS/UKMET fwiw.
So, maybe this is the main reason why the Euro is out on its own right now with nondevelopment. Is it more likely to bust badly in this case or is it more likely to win this time? This is a tough one but the GEFS having the Ukmet in its camp for development as well as the MJO over the next 6 days at least makes me leery about going with the Euro despite it often doing best with the MJO.
 
From elsewhere, I just read that the Ukmet and even the TC happy CMC have at least scaled back speed of development at 12Z. Hmm, this is a really tough one. But this disagreement is imo what makes forecasting TCs extra interesting. If models always agreed, the forecasting discussion would imo be far less interesting since there'd be no challenge.
 
As I said, this is a real tough call. One additional thing to keep in mind is mid July climatology, which normally doesn't favor a lot of activity. Yes, the MDR is far more favorable than average for July, including very warm SSTs. The waves have been far more impressive than average and we even had a rare early July TD well out there. But long term climo is still pretty quiet at this time of year way out there.
Another thing to consider: although the Euro often overstrengthens TCs once it shows geneses, it often is too gunshy on showing geneses. Could that be the case here?
 
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