None of the models (including ensembles) outside of maybe the ICON, which was absolutely stellar with the 1/3/18 storm, have been doing well overall.
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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
None of the models (including ensembles) outside of maybe the ICON, which was absolutely stellar with the 1/3/18 storm, have been doing well overall.
packfan98
Moderator
Agreed! The ICON in the midrange 3-7 day and the NAM 3km for the short range has definitely been the winning combination this year.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I find it hilarious how so many on americanwx tried to claim the ICON was crap a month or so ago lol even after I said a bajillion times it shares the same slow physics parameterizations as the Euro. Its data assimilation, resolution, parameterizations, etc are superior to the GFS which becomes evident esp inside the medium range (day 5-6). The RGEM nailed the CAD event yesterday and the NAM of course was very respectable. I'll have to investigate further into what could be attributing to the HRRR's bias to erode CAD too quickly but it's no better than the GFS in that regard. I'm sure the mixing or boundary layer scheme may be leading to overmixing which also might be amplified by its p-type algorithms in specific situations
Stormlover
Member
5-10 inches of rain in north Alabama over next two weeks
packfan98
Moderator
I am hopeful that the HREF will be a great short range tool to replace the SREF and add to our short list of good models. I've heard you mention it. I also saw some mets from the NE mention how well it did identifying mixing issues on one of their storms this year. Do you have any more information about it, or when it will replace the SREF?
When even the cold biased GEFS has the SE US near normal to warmer than normal averaged out over the next 15 days, it isn't a good sign for cold prospects. Are we going to end up with a La Nina style SE Feb after all?
Brent
Member
total model bust here on temps, unexpected arctic air lol
A few days ago the Euro had 70s and pushing 80 now, the GFS had no freeze even yesterday, it was well down in the 20s
and even now a struggle to get much above freezing(the forecast is still around 50, glwt)
A few days ago the Euro had 70s and pushing 80 now, the GFS had no freeze even yesterday, it was well down in the 20s
and even now a struggle to get much above freezing(the forecast is still around 50, glwt)
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unfortunately, I don't have an exact time table when that would occur (even if they provided a date it would likely change anyway), but I wish they would find a replacement to the SREF soon esp one w/o an appreciable wet bias (which is attributable to the ARW members in a majority of cases). The HREF is an update to the Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) but it's really not integrating any new models, it's just taking what we already have (a few NAM ARW & NMMB members, a NAM nest and the NSSL model) and meshing those together to create a high res ensemble that updates in real-time. The HREF is okay but we're essentially just getting polished garbage on the whole. In the sense that it's more refined and condensed than what we currently have, it's not bad but otherwise eh. What we really need is a suite of new high res models, and Europe is kicking our butt in that department.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/98Annual/webprogram/Paper334406.html
Keep hope alive! Courtesy- North Georgia Weather
At 34° in Cleveland TN
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I don't believe in SSW events. Also, that map looks like a West Coast dream not an East Coast one.
It has to star with west coast or Rockies trough, then bleed east! The bleeding won't start till midmonth, then end up here 1st week in March!
I don't believe in splits and SSW either, but what else we got? The next 15 days look like Tom Brady as a receiver!
blocking?
For my area the ICON has been horrible. The 2 storms in January that we received 9 inches of snow from it was awful. It never had snow within 300 miles of me. Not on any run. I wonder if it performs better in certain areas ??
The ICON was the first medium range model to have the 1/3/2018 surface low that was near Grand Bahama Island move NNE and hugging the coast instead of NE further offshore thus causing it to predict a major coastal winter storm way earlier than the others (including Euro), which had only light amounts. This was a huge win for the ICON. Once within the NAM range it also then started having the low move NNE. So, it also did well..
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Like I've said in a post before, in my case when I've looked at it, it's been absolute trash on temps for me and it corrects later. Like there was one time where the 0z run initialized with me at 40 degrees and that was not even close to correct. Did VERY well on QPF with the NC special IMO but it was trash with temps until almost go time.
pcbjr
Member
Been trying for days to find something that looks a bit "good", and it would have to end up being this:
All the models , except for GFS , have MJO going nicely into phase 8
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO is taking its sweet time to run its course through phase 7, this is obviously contributing to the warmth being forecast the next couple weeks, but we're going to keep this WWB on the dateline going through at least the 3rd week of February. Definitely starting to wonder how big this oceanic Kelvin Wave is going to be, an MJO pulse this intense lasting this long over the west-central Pacific is a little disconcerting. We'll find out soon enough in 2-3 weeks if this kelvin wave is beefy enough to push us close to NINO territory by late spring and/or if further coupling occurs.
Our ENSO base state is likely going to change, how much is uncertain, but this La Nina we're in now is probably living on borrowed time.
Our ENSO base state is likely going to change, how much is uncertain, but this La Nina we're in now is probably living on borrowed time.
Clayton
Member
We're running out of time. All this stratosphere warming SO I crash, etc. Is giving false hope and it seems nothing can give us cold and another winter storm. Is there any hope? Regardless of what u think of JB, he's the one that taught me that soi crashes usually bring a trough in the East and south. Have you ever noticed that? What hope do we have regardless in your opinion?
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