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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
For the 11th day in a row, the MJO remains above 3.0 sigma in phase 7.
In terms of amplitude and persistence, there's literally no valid comparison for this event at this time of the year other than March 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Nino events, and rightfully so. I've seen a lot of short sighted commentary the past week or two from some of my colleagues wrt ENSO saying things like "oh I don't see any El Nino coming, the models show "x" or the subsurface waters aren't that warm yet!" Unfortunately, they have no idea what's about to hit them, especially if we don't get a big easterly trade wind surge to weaken this monster Kelvin Wave that's building in the West Pacific. Paul Roundy (who's an expert on the MJO, tropical-extratropical interactions & tropical variability) is taking notice of how we're mirroring the evolution of 1997 albeit we're starting from a cooler base state
Late 1996-early 1997 U Wind & OHC anomalies via TAO buoys.
This year.
Another big westerly wind burst is looming on the horizon by day 4 after the current one temporarily abates in a few days which will add more fuel to the fire.
In addition to favorable background forcing from a cool Atlantic MDR and record +PMM, everyday the MJO sits w/ this kind of amplitude in phase 7, the dramatic unfettering background music gets louder and louder for an oncoming El Nino and soon it's going to be too loud for most to ignore.
In terms of amplitude and persistence, there's literally no valid comparison for this event at this time of the year other than March 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Nino events, and rightfully so. I've seen a lot of short sighted commentary the past week or two from some of my colleagues wrt ENSO saying things like "oh I don't see any El Nino coming, the models show "x" or the subsurface waters aren't that warm yet!" Unfortunately, they have no idea what's about to hit them, especially if we don't get a big easterly trade wind surge to weaken this monster Kelvin Wave that's building in the West Pacific. Paul Roundy (who's an expert on the MJO, tropical-extratropical interactions & tropical variability) is taking notice of how we're mirroring the evolution of 1997 albeit we're starting from a cooler base state
Late 1996-early 1997 U Wind & OHC anomalies via TAO buoys.
This year.
Another big westerly wind burst is looming on the horizon by day 4 after the current one temporarily abates in a few days which will add more fuel to the fire.
In addition to favorable background forcing from a cool Atlantic MDR and record +PMM, everyday the MJO sits w/ this kind of amplitude in phase 7, the dramatic unfettering background music gets louder and louder for an oncoming El Nino and soon it's going to be too loud for most to ignore.
SnowNiner
Member
I think that'll about do it for the winter. Looks like another cool early spring.
Glad to hear we may be moving on to a Nino next year, but I don't want anything to do with a super Nino. Too warm. A nice moderate will do just fine...lol. Along with getting into the solar minimum, I'm rather hopeful for next year.
Glad to hear we may be moving on to a Nino next year, but I don't want anything to do with a super Nino. Too warm. A nice moderate will do just fine...lol. Along with getting into the solar minimum, I'm rather hopeful for next year.
whatalife
Moderator
I know it’s way to early to tell and I don’t want to see a strong or super El Niño...
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Stormlover
Member
yep, we might
1. Per this morning's MDA forecast for KATL of 54.7 for Feb. (7.5 warmer than normal or near the normal for March), that would be the 4th warmest Feb on record going back to 1879! They even have a shot at 2nd warmest because a 55.0 would put it in alone in 2nd place. The only one which is as of now appears somewhat safe is 2017's 56.1. So, thank goodness last Feb. was that warm or else we could now be seriously challenging for the warmest on record!
2. Even with the current very warm Feb that is projected, it as mentioned looks to still be cooler than one year ago. Assuming that holds, Feb would be the 9th month in a row that is colder than one year ago at KATL. Yay!
3. The EPO has been negative every day since 1/31 and is forecasted to remain negative for the next 10 days. Despite this, it has been and will remain warm in the SE US. This is but one example that shows that the correlation of -EPO to cold in the SE US is fairly weak. It is a much stronger signal for cold in the Midwest. OTOH, the PNA has turned negative and isn't expected to turn solidly positive anytime soon. The +PNA, though not nearly perfectly correlated (nothing ever is), is a much stronger signal for SE cold than is the -EPO. The -AO is also a strong predictor of SE cold.
2. Even with the current very warm Feb that is projected, it as mentioned looks to still be cooler than one year ago. Assuming that holds, Feb would be the 9th month in a row that is colder than one year ago at KATL. Yay!
3. The EPO has been negative every day since 1/31 and is forecasted to remain negative for the next 10 days. Despite this, it has been and will remain warm in the SE US. This is but one example that shows that the correlation of -EPO to cold in the SE US is fairly weak. It is a much stronger signal for cold in the Midwest. OTOH, the PNA has turned negative and isn't expected to turn solidly positive anytime soon. The +PNA, though not nearly perfectly correlated (nothing ever is), is a much stronger signal for SE cold than is the -EPO. The -AO is also a strong predictor of SE cold.
tractor girl
Member
Total rainfall for the past 3 days IMBY is 1.5 inches. We were projected to have 3 inches if not 4.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I still give it a C. One good storm, and I got 6 inches of snow out of it, which is average for winter. C is average. Better than nothing, but it seems we either get nothing at all, or one good storm the past few years. And it seems the majority of winters since 2000 have been like that here.
If I were to grade this winter strictly on wintry precip. I obviously could already say A+ in MBY with the 2" of SN/IP being 1,000% of normal as well as nearly 0.50" of ZR, which is at least 1,000% of its normal as well. Having the coldest week in 40 years during and around that winter storm made it extra special as it allowed the SN/IP to stick around for as much as a whopping 5 days in shady areas!. I'm not sure how I'd grade this winter, overall, and won't be able to til it is finished, but it will surely be a high grade.
tennessee storm
Member
Starting like what I see on euro extended. Nice deep trough west With some se ridging to boot. Smell severe wx shaping up if pattern holds ....
Google translate = Warm in the SE.
Can you tell when the cold front came through? Too bad it's just a one day deal...
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olhausen
Member
Forecasted high today for here was 45 degrees. Currently it’s 37 degrees as of 1:34pm so I doubt we crack 40 today. Also we had freezing rain/sleet with a tiny bit of flurries at the end come through around 1AM this morning. It wasn’t much but the roads were icy. For the most part I’ve been able to avoid well above average temps for more then a few days but that is supposedly going to change this week. Highs in the upper 50s tomorrow then mid 60s Wednesday and the first 70 degree temps since November on Thursday. Friday it’s back to the 40s which is fine with me.
Clayton
Member
Hey Eric, it looks like it's gone down from 3 sigma to 2+ sigma. Correct me if I'm wrong I'm looking at the mjo forecast and it looks like it hasn't been at 3.0 sigma since about 2 days ago. Clarify please, thanks.
pcbjr
Member
If I were to grade the winter, thus far, it would be a B -- (minus minus) since we did get some good cold, albeit too short in duration and nothing earth-shattering, and missed frozen by 30 or so miles. If February pans out as progged, it'll be a low grade C.
However, there's one part of this winter that deserves a resounding A++ (plus plus) and that's all the folks who contributed to a really lively and well considered discussion, whether the outlook was bad, or good, or bad again ... in that sequential progression ...
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO hasn't moved at all since yesterday it's still above 3.0 sigma
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Clayton
Member
No, I'm saying look at the forecast map. If you look to the left side where it has 1 2 3 and 4 I thought that stood for the sigma.
Euro has 70s up and down the east coast in the extended. I hope it's right . My power bill was 323 last month. I had three separate events this winter with the big one in early December. I give it an A+ for sure
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
MJO amplitude is determined by the sums of the squares of the amplitude on both the sides of the diagram which is all taken under the square root because in order to average standardized data like the PCs that make up the MJO you have to do this otherwise it's not the same. Averaging standardized numbers doesn't follow the same procedure as actual numbers