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Pattern ENSO Updates

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Mar 13, 2017.

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  1. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    Quite a bit of heat just below the surface. Moderate niño looks a good bet and strong niño might be a possibility still.
    upload_2018-11-5_22-26-39.gif
     
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  2. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    We don't won't strong, it will keep us dried up?
     
  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    This past October's East Pacific Warm Water Volume anomaly was 6th highest on record, in moderate El Nino territory if you use ranked percentiles, and was about 1 standard deviation above average. Also worth mentioning it was only superseded by moderate or strong El Ninos (1997-98, 1982-83, 2015-16, 2002-03, & 1991-92).
    A weak or moderate central Pacific El Nino is the most likely outcome for this winter.
    Screen Shot 2018-11-06 at 8.13.31 AM.png
     
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  4. MichaelJ

    MichaelJ Member

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    Agree the location (3.4) of warmest water is now pretty well established, only the final strength is to be determined and I still think a strong El Nino is unlikely
     
  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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