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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

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The Pacific jet is going to be on steroids if we see anything like what the GFS is advertising, it's probably way too overzealous w/ the intensity of this modeled TC as usual because it likely has unrealistic frictional dissipation in the boundary layer that's apparently exponentially related to a TC's initial intensity.
gfs_uv300_npac_38.png
 
Eric, you're basically saying the GFS is overdoing the typhoon, so this solution is likely wrong for us?
 
Shawn said:
@Stormsfury , there is some snow for you on the coast of SC on the 26th!
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I can't take amy details seriously at all at the surface. Only thing I feel confident is that there will be a major league high dropping into the US around the Christmas timeframe. GFS feedback on how it handles the WPAC Tropical cyclone overbears what happens downstream (I.E. Us)
 
If this really strong TC isn't here on the GFS, the ridge in the southeastern US will probably return, this run or even its under dispersive ensemble suite (much less any NWP) is not something I would hang my hat on this far out (beyond 5 days) for any details given we really don't know what's going to happen w/ this TC (if anything). Sure, the planetary wave configuration probably won't be easy to modify inside week 1 but after that it's really up in the air what's going to happen
Classic extratropical flow response to a typhoon in the West Pac verbatim....
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gfs_z500a_npac_43.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If this really strong TC isn't here on the GFS, the ridge in the southeastern US will probably return, this run or even its under dispersive ensemble suite (much less any NWP) is not something I would hang my hat on this far out (beyond 5 days) for any details given we really don't know what's going to happen w/ this TC (if anything). Sure, the planetary wave configuration probably won't be easy to modify inside week 1 but after that it's really up in the air what's going to happen
Classic extratropical flow response to a typhoon in the West Pac verbatim....
View attachment 2066
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Very nice write up!!!
 
Shawn said:
Eric, you're basically saying the GFS is overdoing the typhoon, so this solution is likely wrong for us?
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The specific solution (& any other for that matter) should be dismissed until this typhoon has actually formed and is already in the process of recurving which will take at least a week or so (or more) to evolve... Yes, if the GFS is overzealous w/ the typhoon and too quick to recurve it into the mid-latitude westerlies, that means the trough over the eastern US at this particular interval is overdone
 
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