Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Atlantic is extremely suppressed and looks to remain that way into the middle of July.
Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.
This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.
Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
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It will be interesting to see if this VI remains well below normal. As the chart shows, it has been that way all year and, if anything, it is going down even more in relation to normal. Based on the trend is your friend and past years showing a partial correlation to later in the year, I feel one should lean on the relatively inactive side for the tropical Atlantic this year. JB may actually be onto something.Atlantic is extremely suppressed and looks to remain that way into the middle of July.
Not really surprising or “bust season” though. Show doesn’t start until August anyway.
This is Actually not much different than last year. The second storm last year formed on july 4th and only 3 storms had formed by August 6th.
Should we stay quiet into July that will bring us to a slower start than last year. But nothing unusual “yet”
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Listening ... just don't wanna hear ...I've been saying for the past days, some models are hinting at something in the gulf if anyone was listening LOL!!
I wouldn’t get too excited yet about a TC showing up late on a Euro op as well as some ensemble members because that is during mid July, one of the quietest parts of the hurricane season on average. The TC looks to form from a front in the N Gulf similar to how Alicia of 1983 formed. But Alicia was in a much more clim. active period, August. The 12Z GFS also has something though its ensembles have very little.
An arguably more applicable analog is Arthur (2014). This storm on the ECMWF originates off of a giant MCS over midwest that plows southeastward towards the Gulf coast and interacts w/ a stalled frontal boundary. If a very strong mesolow can form and interact w/ the low-level convergence zone associated w/ said front over water, then it may be game on.
It has some wind forecast issues! I remember the last few tropical systems that affected my back yard, the Euro has the highest wind gusts forecast of all models and was pretty far off! But, all the models having something, is definitely interesting and I reall hope the moisture of any gulf entity , makes it up my way!The Euro went crazy yall large area of near hurricane force gusts well inland lol
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NWS BMX ALSO SEES SOMETHING, HERE IS PART OF THE LONG TERM AFDagree here... not saying anything will definitely form(I mean it is July like said earlier), but if something was gonna form this time of year, this is how
At least its something to watch, the TWO has been blank for weeks lol
also looks like Barbara is gonna die way before Hawaii, but it still was one of the strongest EPAC hurricanes this early the other day just shy of Cat 5