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Wintry 12/8/2017 Winter Storm: What We Learned

Snowflowxxl

Snowflowxxl

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Figured we could have a thread about what we learned as a board from this storm. Here a couple of my observations.

1. The NW Trend is still very prevalent. Like with every storm it showed up big time here.
2. Road and ground temps are overrated when you have rates like we did.
3. The CMC and NAM did a fantastic job sniffing this thing out. The HRRR did a great job as well once we got into its range.
4. The GFS just needs to be dismissed. 2 years in a row it’s been out too lunch wayyyyy too south. Absolutely terrible. Euro was solid but not gold standard worthy.
5. If the models even hint at a warm nose showing up, be very afraid. That thing just doesn’t ever want to budge.

Those are just 5 things I saw, I’m sure y’all can’t point out some more.
 
1. The PNA on 12/8/17 being at +1.7 was the highest single day in 5 months and now it is heading down. This is just another example of a +PNA usually being helpful for major SE snowstorm chances.

2. There was a +NAO. This is just one more of many examples of major SE snows happening without a -NAO, which I maintain is overrated even though I'd rather have it than not have it.

3. I do think that the the -AO helped by helping to bring down a good supply of cold to the north and west.

4. Most importantly, the analogs are back. Take that, Mack! ;) My #1 QBO/ENSO/-AO analog of Dec of 2000 was also snowy at ATL.
 
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I don't know, I didn't really see a typical NW trend with this storm. Most of the time the NW trend happens because the models over do the troughs. This time the small trend NW was because it was actually more amped. It also appeared to move NW because of the models typically nothe handling the northward extent of the precip.

However the warm nose thing is very well documented. The models always over do the cold push by 50-100 miles which also aids in the legend of the northwest trend.

I think it adds another point to Larry's research that shows most of the major snowstorms in the south do not have a strong low pressure. In this case it was a combination of overrunning and the low level system that caused it.
 
That a damming high is not needed for north Georgia to get snow. (Though would had been helpful especially for our friends further east (Gainesville and northeastward).
 
Pay attention to upstream trends!!!! The amounts reported and RADAR trends in Texas should have "tripped" the alarms... (FFC did catch on early Friday morning.) but the broadcast mets in general did not... In fairness to them, this atrated to show when they were on the air, and not really able to dig through the material to see these trends. That IMO lead to some school systems deciding to go ahead with school day (also the fact that many had lost "snow days" to Irma here in Metro Atl. (similar to 2009 with floods ) ..
 
Now, here's the big QUESTION...Will this last system be a recurring pattern for this Winter??? I know a lot on the board sure hope so


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Flurry said:
Now, here's the big QUESTION...Will this last system be a recurring pattern for this Winter??? I know a lot on the board sure hope so


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That question can only be answered with time and maybe some analogs. I hope we can see a storm or two more that gives areas that missed out some snow. I would be fine to see south of here pummeled with near a foot and same with Raleigh in a storm this winter even if I see little to nothing.
 
WeatherLC said:
That a damming high is not needed for north Georgia to get snow. (Though would had been helpful especially for our friends further east (Gainesville and northeastward).
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Honestly in this instance that wouldn't have helped. It was the WAA above that messed us up
 
It still doesn't snow in Raleigh.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nothing appreciable.
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Brick Tamland said:
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I don't get it. We had a few flakes, but the majority was mixed with rain and what wasn't a snow/rain mix was sleet/rain or just rain. Mostly just rain. Is that appreciable snow/did I say it wrong?
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't get it. We had a few flakes, but the majority was mixed with rain and what wasn't a snow/rain mix was sleet/rain or just rain. Mostly just rain. Is that appreciable snow/did I say it wrong?
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I had all snow for a few hours. Happy to just see that at this stage of the game.
 
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