Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NHC will be discontinuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk at 11am, it lacks a well defined closed circulation and it is pretty disorganized and broad overall
Just about every model would have missed it if it does, however, a stronger system would argue poleward movement I would think.... so anything is certainly possible.I wonder if Kirk can strengthen enough to dodge the shear and make it just north of the Caribbean. Seems to be moving WNW with more of a NW component on the satellite. Recon is flying in so we will see how strong or weak he really is.
On second thought..... nah doubtfulJust about every model would have missed it if it does, however, a stronger system would argue poleward movement I would think.... so anything is certainly possible.
Yeah, looks like a thunderstorm band. High rain rates plus the FL winds not being stronger.Must be in a strong wind band right now, because recon is measuring surface winds at or just below hurricane strength at the peak. Also there are some strong FL winds in the region they are approaching. I also am not sure, but the wind direction is changing quickly as they are headed north. Maybe it's from the mid-level circulation or just the speed of the storm?
Navgem, Icon, and CMC show him hanging on as a low....enough for 2 versions to get him to the Gulf. Interesting enough, all 3 had him coming back to life over the past couple of days. Only GFS and Euro keep killing him off.
3 against 2....in the weather business that might be called 50/50 chance...idk...ha
Recon makes it official. Seems stronger throughout and the pressure is a bit higher than 998 mb as is is 1001 mb, but the center went way NNW of the last pass.From another BB, I’m reading that Kirk is legitimately now a good bit stronger than the NHC 45 knots with SLP down to 998 mb. Also, there was a mention that the center may have been tugged north into heavier convection. But warning: none of this is official or from pro mets even though they are knowledgeable amateurs.
Icon 12z runs it further north along the top of the shear wall. CMC runs it straight through the wall, which sounds illogical. Navgem runs further north. Staying with this theme since they saw something different over the past couple of days that keep him alive.999 mb on the last pass and still NW relatively. Also, seems to have winds up around 60 mph on the NE side.