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Tropical Storm Kirk

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by GaWx, Sep 21, 2018.

  1. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Invest 99L, the system metwannabe mentioned in the general models thread as developing on the 12Z ICON just E of the Lesser Antilles in ~a week, is now just off Africa at a VERY low latitude of 6.3N.

    The 12Z GFS is similar but keeps this weak and weakens it further to a ghost near PR before something apparently related to this redevelops in the Bahamas 10/5 before going up the E coast of FL as a TDish low on 10/7 below a stubborn and expansive NE US high. This exact solution is unimportant but this does give an idea of what this might do and when it might do it. So, for the SE US, whereas this doesn’t suggest betting on a threat, this does suggest to not bet the ranch on there being no TC threat around 10/7.

    The threat in the 1st week in Oct to the CONUS is typically much greater coming from the W Caribbean and then through the Gulf but there have been some hits that have come directly off the Atlantic then (example Matthew of 2016) mainly I assume when ridging was stubborn to the north near the NE US. This is not out of the realm of reasonable possibilities considering the recent pattern, which may be partially related to the very warm SST anomalies in the middle latitudes of theAtlantic.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2018
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  2. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    99L has become Tropical Storm Kirk
     
  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    It's certainly been a while since I've seen a low rider like this, the low-level easterly steering flow will make it difficult for Kirk to intensify after 48 hours but if it can survive the trek and make it into either the Western Caribbean or SW Atlantic beyond day 7 or so, it will have a shot to be a legitimate threat to someone down the road (even if it's not the US).

    DntMcrjUUAArf0x.jpg
     
  4. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Interesting.... few models ever developed it and none this early. Hmmm

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  5. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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    And with the se ridge in place a recurve is unlikely.


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  6. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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    The CMC would be a Carolina express.

    [​IMG]


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  7. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    61813090-975E-49E7-81CA-425347B8A2FC.png
    I guess we have a while to monitor, but with more and more cold fronts coming farther south, if this gets into the gulf, it could get pulled into the SE!?
     
  8. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Obviously not the same set up, but close enough in some respects to be illustrative of a "Yes" for sure ...

    at198511.gif
     
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  9. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    If the GFS is right, what cold fronts? The location and strength of the big ridge will determine where it goes. If it gets into the west or central carribbean, its game over if the ridge is modeled correctly.
     
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  10. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The 0Z Sun GEFS is far more active with Kirk in the SW Atlantic with both stronger members as well as a good bit larger number of relatively strong members going W of 60W than was any prior GEFS run fwiw. Whereas prior runs had at most very few sub 1003 mb members among the 21, this run has about half that get near or lower than 990 mb (potential H strength). About half the members recurve E of 60W but about half of the ones that don’t get recurve then subsequently get caught underneath a big NE US surface high and get close to or hit the SE US in early Oct including 2 Hs and a weaker member either hitting or getting close to FL. One goes into the GOM as a H.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018
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  11. DaculaWeather

    DaculaWeather NorthGeorgiaWX.com and DaculaWeather.com Member

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    I don't believe Kirk is going to make it too far. As with most storms that have traveled the southern route this year, Kirk will meet its demise once it encounters the persistent shear that's been in that area all summer.

    23-wg8wxc-8.GIF
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018
  12. DaculaWeather

    DaculaWeather NorthGeorgiaWX.com and DaculaWeather.com Member

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    And no spagettios from the Euro either. Well... one but it disappears in the next frame.

    23-eps_slp_mems_ecarib_21.png
     
  13. DaculaWeather

    DaculaWeather NorthGeorgiaWX.com and DaculaWeather.com Member

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    Another look at the shear conditions

    23-Snap190.jpg
     
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  14. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The model consensus is telling me that as long as Kirk doesn’t move W to WNW just N of the Greater Antilles, the CONUS will likely not be affected by Kirk directly as the Caribbean would likely keep him weak and well north of the Antilles would likely recurve well east of the CONUS.
     
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  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The 12Z CDN ensemble members illustrate the above idea well about the highest risk to the CONUS being within the corridor just N of the Greater Antilles.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2018
  16. NoSnowATL

    NoSnowATL Member

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    TS Kirk ( Mellish) so it has a 50/50 chance... my Georgia people will understand this statement.
     
  17. DaculaWeather

    DaculaWeather NorthGeorgiaWX.com and DaculaWeather.com Member

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    LOL!!!
     
  18. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    I'm not entirely confident that Tropical Storm Kirk's low level center has been closed & well defined for the last day or so nor that it even has one now. Strong easterly trades are making it difficult for Kirk to attain earth relative westerlies & there's an argument to be had that he's only a tropical wave atm.
     
  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Even if Kirk technically has a closed low level center, its rather poor & generally diffusive convective organization could warrant a downgrade to a tropical wave axis.
     
  20. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    From the NHC's 5am discussion: "... earlier ASCAT data and low
    cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough
    instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone."
     
  21. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    The NHC will be discontinuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk at 11am, it lacks a well defined closed circulation and it is pretty disorganized and broad overall
     
  22. DaculaWeather

    DaculaWeather NorthGeorgiaWX.com and DaculaWeather.com Member

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    Yep... it's tough to barrel headfirst into 30-50 kts of shear and survive. Had Kirk been further north to start with, he might have had a chance.

    25-wg8shr.GIF
     
  23. Taylor C

    Taylor C Member

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    Remants of Kirk sure have looked good. This is a strong system maintaining itself pretty well. We aren't done with it yet. The picture above is a good illustration of how if the system gains latitude or just gets closer to the mainland that it has a more favorable environment to work with. It is forecast to do that in the coming days. In addtion, the operational NOGAPS with run to run continuity, and a decent number of CMC, GFS, and EURO ensembles are hinting at a more organized system the further west it tracks.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2018
  24. DarkKnight

    DarkKnight I only have one rule!!! Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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  25. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    He's baaaack. Up to 45 mph too.
     
  26. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I wonder if Kirk can strengthen enough to dodge the shear and make it just north of the Caribbean. Seems to be moving WNW with more of a NW component on the satellite. Recon is flying in so we will see how strong or weak he really is.
     
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  27. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Just about every model would have missed it if it does, however, a stronger system would argue poleward movement I would think.... so anything is certainly possible.
     
  28. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    On second thought..... nah doubtful

    [​IMG]
     
  29. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Looks like the center is on the western edge of that deep convection, so it's not a well organized stacked system I don't think so probably not as strong as it looks.
     
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  30. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Must be in a strong wind band right now, because recon is measuring surface winds at or just below hurricane strength at the peak. Also there are some strong FL winds in the region they are approaching. I also am not sure, but the wind direction is changing quickly as they are headed north. Maybe it's from the mid-level circulation or just the speed of the storm?
     
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