Invest 99L, the system metwannabe mentioned in the general models thread as developing on the 12Z ICON just E of the Lesser Antilles in ~a week, is now just off Africa at a VERY low latitude of 6.3N. The 12Z GFS is similar but keeps this weak and weakens it further to a ghost near PR before something apparently related to this redevelops in the Bahamas 10/5 before going up the E coast of FL as a TDish low on 10/7 below a stubborn and expansive NE US high. This exact solution is unimportant but this does give an idea of what this might do and when it might do it. So, for the SE US, whereas this doesn’t suggest betting on a threat, this does suggest to not bet the ranch on there being no TC threat around 10/7. The threat in the 1st week in Oct to the CONUS is typically much greater coming from the W Caribbean and then through the Gulf but there have been some hits that have come directly off the Atlantic then (example Matthew of 2016) mainly I assume when ridging was stubborn to the north near the NE US. This is not out of the realm of reasonable possibilities considering the recent pattern, which may be partially related to the very warm SST anomalies in the middle latitudes of theAtlantic.