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Winter 2022/2023 Model Archive

Ollie Williams

It Gon' Rain
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Tis' the season for the fourth annual Winter Archive Thread! The intent of this thread is to include the first fantasy snows of the season, and the continuous model snowstorms in lower elevations (mainly from the GFS). Statistically, this is the latest (by a day) that a model run has triggered the creation of the archive thread. However, unseasonably cold air into mid-October and November looks favorable, so it will be interesting to see if we get a head-start.

Structural Rules for Posting:
1. Please keep all banter, and post reactions out of the thread. For example, if I were to post a map, please do not quote the post, and reply below, "That would be interesting," for example. If you do want to do that, quote the post and reply in the banter thread. I ask the mods to please corporate with reported posts
2. When posting please add the date, and model name, and run to the top of the post, for example, 12z GFS 1/1/2023. A descriptive comment is also encouraged
3. Include relevant maps surrounding a deterministic or ensemble snowy run if applicable. Minimum: Snowfall Accumulation, Ptype map, 500mb Height Anomaly
4. Add a link to where the model run is discussed/posted within the forum
5. Maximize the use of an external server to post gifs.
Imgur and Giphy work; this is due to the file size minimum rules on SouthernWX

Criteria for Posting Model Maps:

1. Seasonal Firsts - First EPS Weeklies Ensemble Member (KGSO) | First GEFS and ECMWF Weeklies Control with snow in lower elevations | First GEFS and ECMWF Weeklies mean with snow in lower elevations | First Snowfall >1in in the higher elevations | First snowfall in the lower elevations (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, ICON)
2. Runs Later in the Season - Mesoscale not required unless significant | Global models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) required unless consistent in the short-range (150 hrs out)

DM me if you have questions. Wishing for the best this winter!
- Ollie Williams

00z Euro Weeklies 10/6/22
First Meteogram Run @KGSO with Snow. three ensemble members this run! Nice high-latitude blocking as well.ecmwf-weeklies-KGSO-indiv_snow-5014400.png
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_30day-8988800.png
 
Winter cancel! When hornet nests are close to the ground, no snow ! Sad winter incoming…BE5DE8AC-1D8F-4420-B067-3EDB195CECE7.png
 
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