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Tropical Hurricane Sam

Clear break in the modeling as it approaches the islands. The gfs hooks it out for the recurve but the euro keeps is steadily WNW.
Yikes GFS is a hurricane landfall where Hurricane Larry just took out their seawall. Newfoundland.
 
I noticed everyone was posting the older euro model version yesterday that looked ominous. Well here is the newer version of the euro model for yesterday too. 0 hits in the Carolinas. B7DA9A0D-D9FB-4176-B9B4-973ECBD31C63.jpeg
 
The first test ^ looking at the new version of the euro from yesterday there is spread over Heberts box #1. To qualify a hurricane must pass inside it with winds of 110…this is probably why many are watching closely as 98L could have those winds by then. Hopefully it misses the box as seen in some spread. I know that’s largely tied to south Florida but given the intensity it could qualify. Should 98L miss all those ensemble intensity forecasts you could still get a weak storm passing just outside the box and end up with something like Hurricane Floyd. TLDR; we wait and see on what the intensity is and if it goes through the box or not. Too much uncertainty at this range.74927F7A-C3FD-4FCC-B457-7FF1E6C8CD17.jpeg
 
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Euro coming in a touch NE so far and really different with the upstream system in New England
 
You can see the Euro has increased the number of strong cane ens members and there looks to be two camps within the ens, so if you split the difference its bad for central Florida to NC...

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2021092212_15844_481_240.png
 
so we have the NHC going for the CAT 3 intensity to qualify for the Hebert box ? but it’s honestly 50-50 does it track into it or not? The ensembles that do look very bad for the Bahamas ??
 
Hard to trust the GFS and its big hundreds of miles shifts run to run........still at this point it looks like a turn and track east of Bermuda seems to be supported much more than a threat to the SE
 
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Coming in furthest west on the 0Z Euro vs 12Z with more ridging to the north. Let's see how far west though. The upper low over the E US is much weaker and is weakening/retrograding as a high builds in. Could get interesting, folks.

ecmop_00_h500_nx_h_0210.png
 
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