Tropical TS Elsa

[GaWx]

12Z Euro doesn’t have that fictional inland strengthening near the FL/GA border that prior runs had.

I just heard that @pcbjr office is closed tomorrow. Interesting, yes, but not fun times for Phil right now.

 

[Snowfan]

NHC now has Elsa regaining hurricane strength.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane
before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa
moves inland by late Wednesday.

it’s 2 PM

 

[Brent]

Finally some H's

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Looks like she’s trying to hang onto those thunderstorms by a single cumulonimbus cloud and any second could rip her away .. she needs another thunderstorm cluster

 

[Downeastnc]

Probably bump it to cane after the NE quad pass, especially if the center pressure has dropped any....

 

[Metwannabe]

Probably bump it to cane after the NE quad pass, especially if the center pressure has dropped any....

Impressive for a system that is not vertically stacked, nice mid level rotation tilted NE from the LLC..... not sure it can get stacked with that shear

 

[Downeastnc]

Impressive for a system that is not vertically stacked, nice mid level rotation tilted NE from the LLC..... not sure it can get stacked with that shear

At least no time soon, its probably a good thing though....some legit strong TS/weak cane conditions on that east side though no matter what they call it.

 

[Tarheel1]

?

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET is a little stronger in E GOM vs its 0Z run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.07.2021 0 24.6N 83.4W 1009 36
0000UTC 07.07.2021 12 26.1N 83.4W 1005 42
1200UTC 07.07.2021 24 28.4N 84.0W 1002 47
0000UTC 08.07.2021 36 30.4N 83.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 08.07.2021 48 32.5N 82.1W 999 36
0000UTC 09.07.2021 60 34.8N 79.3W 998 38
1200UTC 09.07.2021 72 37.0N 75.4W 988 58
0000UTC 10.07.2021 84 39.5N 71.2W 988 61
1200UTC 10.07.2021 96 43.0N 65.6W 995 46
0000UTC 11.07.2021 108 47.0N 57.7W 1001 40
1200UTC 11.07.2021 120 50.9N 46.9W 1004 32
0000UTC 12.07.2021 132 POST-TROPICAL

 

[Downeastnc]

Cane force flight level winds, surface winds right there on the edge, slightly improving structure, pressure down a bit... it might be able to get a decent core together enough to give someplace in FL a legit cane hit tomorrow....

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

As much as she is holding onto dear life I have a feeling prior to landfall she gets ripped from the main convective blob and she’ll have to start all over again .. probably weakening upon arrival vs strengthening upon arrival .. still could be classified as a hurricane as the impacts would stay the same regardless but definitely sloppy seconds .. at least josh is chasing it .. I love seeing his analysis and funny chaser talk when it comes to these types of systems

 

[TateofGA]

First spinoff band is approaching Bradenton. Winds are relatively calm for now and it feels like soup outside.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Metwannabe]

LLC seems to have disappeared under that cdo that is expanding west, Elsa is tenacious that's for sure

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Long range HRRR 18z looks like quite a rough day on Thursday for us in the Carolinas .. gusty winds some pockets where we could see some enhanced tornado threats and lots of heavy rain already from Charlotte to Raleigh to Fayetteville.. of course it’s also the long range HRRR so we got time to work out details

 

[Chazwin]

Long range HRRR 18z looks like quite a rough day on Thursday for us in the Carolinas .. gusty winds some pockets where we could see some enhanced tornado threats and lots of heavy rain already from Charlotte to Raleigh to Fayetteville.. of course it’s also the long range HRRR so we got time to work out details

There’s no way that’s right. CLT will see no effects. Brad P said so

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

LLC seems to have disappeared under that cdo that is expanding west, Elsa is tenacious that's for sure

Still exposed to the southwest but CDO certainly trying to expand westward .. should sneak under completely over the next couple hours if it can keep expanding and generating thunderstorms .. I have my doubts but she’s trying her darn tooting hardest at the moment

 

[Brent]

Still exposed to the southwest but CDO certainly trying to expand westward .. should sneak under completely over the next couple hours if it can keep expanding and generating thunderstorms .. I have my doubts but she’s trying her darn tooting hardest at the moment

She definitely isn't giving up

 

[Tarheel1]

B Rad , decisiveness as usual!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

B Rad , decisiveness as usual!View attachment 86224

I was just about to post … now he finally brings in the option of this possibly moving west … could go East tho WHO THE HELL KNOWS is his take here ?? by tomorrow he’ll say “very rainy to start the day watch for flash flooding and the potential for a few tornadoes in the viewing area could be a bit gusty as well! Could go east though”

 

[Metwannabe]

In all seriousness, tone down the met bashing please. I know we tolerate a bunch, I mean a bunch, of off topic post on here but I also know we've asked to keep the negative met talk to a minimum. Or at least do so in the whamby thread and in such a way that isn't so negative or could be viewed as a turn off to the site. Thanks!