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Tropical TS Elsa

metwannabe said:
Still elongated lopsided system this morning and it's nice can track it on radar now.

And notice the 5 am advisory has hurricane watches up for big bend of Fl in case it can get it's act together before LF
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Yeah still obviously not stacked.....nice flare up with the MLC ongoing but as long as it is not stacked it wont do or mean much....
 
Looks like what is left of Elsa could go right over me Thursday, or at least be very close. Not a fan. Olaf was always the best part anyway.
 
The best thing that might come from this is a day off work Thursday. Fingers crossed.
 
metwannabe said:
What would really be interesting and throw a massive curve ball (track wise) is if the LLC got "sucked" under that deep convection.
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This has almost started being shown in some of the guidance .. it ramps the system up and pops that center way closer to the coast around Tampa bay and then weakens since it’s close proximity to the coast or maybe it landfalls there and rides the coast before then making its way up towards us .. we will watch on radar
 
Fortunately, there’s no worry about anything even approaching rapid intensification as shear should prevent that. This remains nicely tilted. Good news for @pcbjr and others although this has always been expected/forecasted. The 12Z Euro yesterday getting her down into the 980s is going to look really bad barring something totally unforeseen.
But still plenty of weather associated with this over much of the SE! It will obviously be a pretty big deal. I’m not trying to downplay it. I’m just trying to downplay the Euro’s silliness.

This will go a long ways toward keeping away SE drought and the associated threat of a heatwave. That’s the best news about this.
 
LLC almost exposed now, so it's not going to get "sucked" under that convection.... this is most likely why models actually pull it NNW and keep it away from the coastline of Fl until the big bend area
 
GaWx said:
Fortunately, there’s no worry about anything even approaching rapid intensification as shear should prevent that. This remains nicely tilted. Good news for @pcbjr and others although this has always been expected/forecasted. The 12Z Euro yesterday getting her down into the 980s is going to look really bad barring something totally unforeseen.
But still plenty of weather associated with this over much of the SE! It will obviously be a pretty big deal. I’m not trying to downplay it. I’m just trying to downplay the Euro’s silliness.

This will go a long ways toward keeping away SE drought and the associated threat of a heatwave. That’s the best news about this.
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Maybe east of I-95, but the rest of NC and SC will be going into a drought before summer is over unless things change. It will also get warmer too with triple digits possible.
 
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