Henry2326
Member
I agree. We’ve seen it a number of times the last few years. When Michael first formed in 2018, the EURO didn’t ever have it going above TS strength even though all other modeling was screaming that it could be a big one. Laura last year was another that stood out, but with both of those, once the storm got going, it locked in a solution and was very solidKing seems to really struggle with TC genesis, weak sauce, unorganized tropical entities. Get a wound up storm and normally euro figures it out within 1 to 3 model cycles. I have no data to suport my statement, just a stereotype ive assigned to it watching models while tracking storms over years.
This doesn’t really scream shear to me .. what am I missingWith grain of salt, but here is current steering map.
View attachment 86197
There is some shear from the SW. looked like 15-20kt. That map shows me it should climb the coast of FL (offshore) until maybe big bend area?This doesn’t really scream shear to me .. what am I missing
There is some shear from the SW. looked like 15-20kt. That map shows me it should climb the coast of FL (offshore) until maybe big bend area?
I agree with him in terms of wind impacts being confined east of I-95… I think that’s a coastal issue only. However he’s still holding out on very little rainfall west of I-95, and that makes absolutely no sense… even the WPC has 2 inches plus of rainfall now backed up to the very eastern portion of Union, east Stanly, Anson, and Richmond counties… this is the eastern portion of his viewing area.Brad still holding down the fort on little impacts for anyone west of I-95 … I’m surprised how quick will he change his tune? Only time will tell
That Euro track looking good though!Lol 3k NAM takes center over Charlotte and keeps most rain in western Carolina's.
Don't look at the 6z Icon. Still several options on the table, but the far east tracks are looking less likely right now. Hopefully, many of us get a good rainfall.Looks like the good ole 11th hour NW adjustments are underway. Just how far is the question.
For sure. Waiting to see what the 06Z euro shows but the 0Z euro was a pretty big jump west from the 18Z run.Don't look at the 6z Icon. Still several options on the table, but the far east tracks are looking less likely right now. Hopefully, many of us get a good rainfall.
What's the best site for that? Or is it only pay per view?For sure. Waiting to see what the 06Z euro shows but the 0Z euro was a pretty big jump west from the 18Z run.
I think pay per view only however weather nerds has the 06 & 18z EPSWhat's the best site for that? Or is it only pay per view?
Yep heaviest rain axis in western central NC with an honestly large swath of gusty winds for much of the state .. if we took the 3km verbatimLol 3k NAM takes center over Charlotte and keeps most rain in western Carolina's.
While true long range NAM 3km does not have a good track record .. it’s like the long range HRRR .. they can definitely give you clues about the general trend location of rain and stuffEven though it’s obviously not a tropical model, I wouldn’t completely count out the NAM3k’s track. The more that trough to the NW slows, the more westerly track this will take inland.