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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,387
- Reaction score
- 9,836
Thanks man, that's why i posted the 18z Nam "FWIW" but the birdman called me out on it ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Elsa coming in a tad stronger than this morning on this recon mission ~1005 hPa, but not any stronger than it was yesterday.
Shaggy
Member
Center looks loose on sat loops. I was almost thinking it was losing the LLC on the last visible of the day.
Henry2326
Member
Stormsfury
Member
Elsa has indeed strengthened to 65mph tonight with a slightly lower pressure... 1004mb.
Brent
Member
Hurricane warnings in Cuba too
lexxnchloe
Member
It looks better.
Downeastnc
Member
Still a crappy looking storm, but she is doing the things she needs to do to hold on till she can clear the islands.....then it comes down to how much shear there actually is and how long she is over the GOM before hitting.....still pretty good bet someplace along the west coast of Florida deals with a strong TS even weak cane by Tues/Wed.
Avalanche
Member
This is what mby needs!! Instead it will be east and I will have sinking dry air.
Throw back to when I said Elsa could bring much needed rain for us last week and I was stoned and shamed ? again still not a for sure thing but looks like we will at least get SOMETHING
Random thought but we really haven’t seen a crazy tornado outbreak in a while.. I mean a real gung hoe system that laid them down like in 2011 .. I guess they really are just rare events to take place
06z eps/euro shifted west again 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I made this mini-movie to explain what Dmax/Diurnal Max is, and why it matters for tropical cyclones. Hopefully after watching it, everyone has a better understanding of this phenomena.
Gary M
Member
They were only recent runs of some models so WPC won’t usually change those rainfall maps based on sudden changes … if we get a few more cycles like the ones recently then I’m sure those totals will rise with time
Bannerdude
Member
His map is only showing areas getting 1"+. Here's a better map of expected rainfall in central NC