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Tropical TS Bonnie

ALEET! ALEET! You know this is going straight to TX and around the SE!! Just always does when you need the rain! That’s why I moved! TN gets 5-7”, up into the Ohio valley
 
Pretty good consensus on Central America right now. Threat has definitely lessened a bit to the Northern Gulf I think but things can easily change if it can stay on the northern side of the guidance and we are still talking about beyond day 7. Either way for this being late June this storm yeah may be very impressive
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A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Click to expand...
PTC coming out later today.
 
Special Message from NHC Issued 27 Jun 2022 20:08 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

Still looks like Central America is heavily favored94L_tracks_latest.png
 
This might become a tropical storm overnight as it looks like the wave has oriented itself more n to s, and now convection is much better organized than 24 hours ago.
 
You don't need visible Satellite to know that PTC 2 is a mess. The vorticity at all levels, in addition to convection, has an elongated WSW to ENE orientation, which is a small improvement from the E to W. This system needs to wrap around the NE lobe to its N, and take on a N to S orientation. However, the alleged COC has been running away to the WSW of vigorous 700-500Mb vortexes that appear to want to reform the storm further NNE. Given that the NHC designated COC is pretty much run aground, I would expect a relocation around 13.5N,38W some point today.

PTC 2 needs to slow down. The about to be old COC is traveling at 30MPH. This system has the potential to quickly develop into a hurricane if it can just slow down enough for a new LLC to form further north. I've seen some impressive gusts already.
 
Has this been designated as Remnants of PTC2 lol? It might relocate its center overnight, but this is just getting uglier with the lowest pressures and most vigorous voriticies hiking over those Moutains of Venezuela.
 
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Brent said:
I remember when this storm was gonna be a hurricane in the Gulf ?

Looks like it might happen in the Pacific at this rate...
Click to expand...

Based on Satellite presentation, I can see how the models would have over-developed this system. If it had some breathing room to slow and move North in favorable wind shear, this one would be wrapping up into a Major Hurricane. It's a huge, juiced and vigorous vortex that is trying to bundle energy from 925-500Mbs. IDK... This one seems like it would only need a day to ramp up north of Venezuela, so I would only bet that it doesn't hit the Gulf Coast.
 
Tornadocane said:
Based on Satellite presentation, I can see how the models would have over-developed this system. If it had some breathing room to slow and move North in favorable wind shear, this one would be wrapping up into a Major Hurricane. It's a huge, juiced and vigorous vortex that is trying to bundle energy from 925-500Mbs. IDK... This one seems like it would only need a day to ramp up north of Venezuela, so I would only bet that it doesn't hit the Gulf Coast.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's also moving faster than the models said and that's always a bad thing in this area... Can't get it together. The Eastern Caribbean is known as a graveyard for this reason
 
About 3 days late

..DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).
 
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