• We've made some major changes to the website. You can view a short list : Here
  • Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Tropical Tropical Storm Philippe (1 Viewer)

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
3,270
Likes
5,488
Location
SAV, GA
#1
I feel that there's now enough model support to create a thread for this so as to not overly clutter the general models tropical thread. The more reliable model consensus suggests that should this form that it would have a good chance to miss FL to the SE although maybe not by too much. That would imply the greatest threat being to central Cuba, the Bahamas, and possibly Bermuda vs FL. However, it is still early enough for the greatest threat to shift westward to FL (especially south) a la Nate's shift. Climo says that FL landfall chances from W Caribbean or Gulf geneses are still nontrivial through about 11/5 as there were 8 of these during just 10/26-11/5 since 1851. After that is when climo based chances plummet.

Also, for the first time, the NHC mentions this:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
 

pcbjr

Supporter
Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
6,560
Likes
6,516
Location
Gainesville, FL
#2
I feel that there's now enough model support to create a thread for this so as to not overly clutter the general models tropical thread. The more reliable model consensus suggests that should this form that it would have a good chance to miss FL to the SE although maybe not by too much. That would imply the greatest threat being to central Cuba, the Bahamas, and possibly Bermuda vs FL. However, it is still early enough for the greatest threat to shift westward to FL (especially south) a la Nate's shift. Climo says that FL landfall chances from W Caribbean or Gulf geneses are still nontrivial through about 11/5 as there were 8 of these during just 10/26-11/5 since 1851. After that is when climo based chances plummet.

Also, for the first time, the NHC mentions this:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
In Wiki!
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
3,270
Likes
5,488
Location
SAV, GA
#5
Up to 10/50 but models suggest this would likely not be that strong should it form. There still is a chance that S FL could be affected, regardless, though it could easily move SE of S FL:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

stormcentral

Storm Central Wx
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
643
Likes
236
Location
Chattanooga, TN
#16
CODE; Yellow Day 2 CODE; Orange Day 5 Regaurdless of any cyclone development heavy rain will be possible in Nicarauga, & Cuba as the disturbance drifts northward through weekend towards Florida straits
 

stormcentral

Storm Central Wx
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
643
Likes
236
Location
Chattanooga, TN
#17
Can someone please explain to me why the models keep shifting it west across Central America. Then the next run into the Florida striaghts. Verified on GEFS;
They have been doing it frequently with this particular storm. Or investigation
 
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
3,073
Likes
2,754
Location
Dallas Texas
#18
there's an invest in the EPAC forecast to take that track that may be confusing them

Personally I'm starting to think hurricane season may be over... the window is closing on this to do something.

and it has nowhere to go but north this weekend, gonna be quite a noreaster for NC and up
 
Last edited:
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
3,073
Likes
2,754
Location
Dallas Texas
#23
this is somehow now Philippe although the center is very hard to find if it exists at all, not much of a future tropical wise anyway
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top