RIP. Still could see some rain and little wind way down East
RIP. Still could see some rain and little wind way down East
Eye has separated from main area of convection per the most recent satellite frames
View attachment 45709
If it still has a closed circulation at 30N, the Gulf Stream and trough venting could work magic as so often occurs.
If it still has a closed circulation at 30N, the Gulf Stream and trough venting could work magic as so often occurs.
Gonna boil down to how much land interaction he has. He stays just far enough east and the chances he makes it back to 75-80 is there.
Then it switches to landfall point, forward speed and how he is mixing winds down as far as wind potential for the Carolinas is concerned.
That’s counting on it staying somewhat together. This thing is hideous rn. And it’s conditions aren’t improving for the next day.12z GFS weakens it all the way to 1005mb along the Florida coast then takes it back to 995mb by landfall at Myrtle Beach. Wouldn't surprise me if that pace is accurate or even conservative if it re-emerges over water.
That’s counting on it staying somewhat together. This thing is hideous rn. And it’s conditions aren’t improving for the next day.
Pat few 0z/12z GFS runs, correcting west as usual. Interesting seeing the strengthening right before landfall in the Carolina's...Euro has that too.
View attachment 45716View attachment 45715
The ukmet is probably the most bullish on last minute intensification of all the western solutions.