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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

One interesting fact, last major hurricane strike in NC was Fran in 1996! 24 years ago. Since then the population has swelled and quite a few people have “ hurricane amnesia “ met a girl from Pittsburgh down in Wilmington who said “ oh hurricanes aren’t too bad here we are too far north”. Average return period for a major hurricane landfall in NC is 18 years . Statistically overdue , although could go another decade before a major , or see 2 back to back majors . Matthews , Dorian , Florence were all bad because of rain, but unless you lived next to a river or immediately on the coast you were probably fine . It can be much worse which I don’t think many people realize .
 
Assuming the 6z Euro is out to lunch, and we get a landfall in the Carolinas, does anyone have any idea where I could find the tide schedule for Monday. The full moon is Monday and that plus a landfalling hurricane at high tide could be a bad deal.
 
Lickwx said:
One interesting fact, last major hurricane strike in NC was Fran in 1996! 24 years ago. Since then the population has swelled and quite a few people have “ hurricane amnesia “ met a girl from Pittsburgh down in Wilmington who said “ oh hurricanes aren’t too bad here we are too far north”. Average return period for a major hurricane landfall in NC is 18 years . Statistically overdue , although could go another decade before a major , or see 2 back to back majors . Matthews , Dorian , Florence were all bad because of rain, but unless you lived next to a river or immediately on the coast you were probably fine . It can be much worse which I don’t think many people realize .
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This is so true. My neighbors are from Buffalo they asked me yesterday how bad hurricanes were around here because we were so far away from the beaches and they shouldn't be bad. I told him to Google Fran and Hazel and report back.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Interesting the Euro is doing this. 06z GEFS made a big shift to taking it over Florida. Average is over land
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Losing the eastward escaping members isn't a good thing. I think part of this is too a weaker system is far more likely to be biased west with its track and now more models are showing a lopsided system with some shear and possible dry air issues.
 
Lickwx said:
One interesting fact, last major hurricane strike in NC was Fran in 1996! 24 years ago. Since then the population has swelled and quite a few people have “ hurricane amnesia “ met a girl from Pittsburgh down in Wilmington who said “ oh hurricanes aren’t too bad here we are too far north”. Average return period for a major hurricane landfall in NC is 18 years . Statistically overdue , although could go another decade before a major , or see 2 back to back majors . Matthews , Dorian , Florence were all bad because of rain, but unless you lived next to a river or immediately on the coast you were probably fine . It can be much worse which I don’t think many people realize .
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You are correct, we’re at a point now that the whole Carolina coast is due for a major to make landfall. It seems we’ve had a number of majors approach but fir some reason they’ve weakened on approach. Something else to keep in mind is that as quickly as this thing is moving, anyone who gets in the right front quadrant of the storm can add that forward speed to the wind speed making things that much worse.
 
SD said:
Losing the eastward escaping members isn't a good thing. I think part of this is too a weaker system is far more likely to be biased west with its track and now more models are showing a lopsided system with some shear and possible dry air issues.
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Is the 1001mb initlaized plot also playing a role since its stronger than that already?
 
SD said:
That gfs run backs TS sustained winds to 95 probably a rough ride for you and I along with rain cold, lick, and the greenville crew.
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Don’t forget about me, you brain dead twit. LOL


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Shaggy said:
Bertha was basically due north from topsail to greenville. My first eye of a hurricane. Hearing the roar of the winds as the backside approached is not something I'll forget.

I believe ernesto and hanna both went up 95 but both were garbage
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I had $30K plus worth of damage to my home from Bertha. My daughter was only a year old and my now ex-wife was pregnant with our second daughter. Storm hit on her birthday. Lost a pool, a huge deck, a couple of trees, roof, gutters, windows, back door, garage door, interior home damage. You name it, we got it.


Edit: My bad. That was Isabel.

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SD said:
This is so true. My neighbors are from Buffalo they asked me yesterday how bad hurricanes were around here because we were so far away from the beaches and they shouldn't be bad. I told him to Google Fran and Hazel and report back.
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My back side neighbors are from Indiana. Across the street are from Plattsburgh, NY. Two houses down, Detroit, MI. Also behind me are from Ohio. None have seen a hurricane. They have asked me a few times about them since they moved in, but the only ones they have seen are Matthew and Dorian. That’s what they think hurricanes are like around here.


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Shaggy said:
Is the 1001mb initlaized plot also playing a role since its stronger than that already?
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Personally I would say no. I think it's more tied to the system not wrapping up and deepening through the southern/southeast Bahamas. A less vertically stacked/tall/impressive system is likely to be pushed farther west by the low/mid levels since the WAR increases in strength and westward expansion as you decrease with height. I could be way off base here but if you look at how bouncy the 6z Euro maps are that were posted you have to think that as convection fires over the LLC and to its NE the center will get pulled more poleward but as that convection wanes it starts to bend back more west.
 
tramadoc said:
My back side neighbors are from Indiana. Across the street are from Plattsburgh, NY. Two houses down, Detroit, MI. Also behind me are from Ohio. None have seen a hurricane. They have asked me a few times about them since they moved in, but the only ones they have seen are Matthew and Dorian. That’s what they think hurricanes are like around here.


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Dang , so even way out in Elizabeth city far from any major job market northerners are pouring in . Lol.
 
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