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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

GFS pretty decent jump west, also much weaker, landfall over ILM....probably TS/weak cane pressure 997.....that track through NC would be rough though if it was a stronger system....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png
 
Here’s the 00z GEPS. Doesn’t mean much because all of the members start off at the wrong pressure and it’s the Canadian, but here it is.
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Squeeze play with a quick trip through NC and a nice trough enhanced left of track precip maximum
Shane you'll take about a 5 mile west shift of the precip shield and call it a day I bet
gfs_z500aNorm_us_14.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_15.png
gfs_apcpn_seus_16.png
 
SD said:
That gfs run backs TS sustained winds to 95 probably a rough ride for you and I along with rain cold, lick, and the greenville crew.
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Me and downeastnc continue to "debate" the proper crossing through NC. He is of the belief a track even through the sounds is sufficient i say the core right up between 95 and 17 or bust!
 
Shaggy said:
Me and downeastnc continue to "debate" the proper crossing through NC. He is of the belief a track even through the sounds is sufficient i say the core right up between 95 and 17 or bust!
Click to expand...
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory

Fran went more west, Gaston was more of a US1, most of the recent storms have been fairly east
 
Anybody got 6z Euor maps yet, per Huffman it is weaker and into Fl, not a bad thing, would think it would be a good rain maker for most

 
SD said:
That gfs run backs TS sustained winds to 95 probably a rough ride for you and I along with rain cold, lick, and the greenville crew.
Click to expand...

That track with a solid largish Cat 2 would be about the worst case scenario given the expected shear and other organizational issues that should occur....that said who the hell knows all it takes is a 12 hr window before landfall over the gulf stream for things to go stupid...it really comes down to how well developed the main core is and how well it mixes down winds....
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory

Fran went more west, Gaston was more of a US1, most of the recent storms have been fairly east
Click to expand...

Bertha was basically due north from topsail to greenville. My first eye of a hurricane. Hearing the roar of the winds as the backside approached is not something I'll forget.

I believe ernesto and hanna both went up 95 but both were garbage
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory

Fran went more west, Gaston was more of a US1, most of the recent storms have been fairly east
Click to expand...
Yeah best I can recall, Bertha, even that was slightly east of 95 I think but it certainly took that S to N path
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory
Click to expand...

Bertha probably.....the point is every storm is different.....in Isabel we were in the SW eye, we actually got inside the eye...max gust 55 mph on the other side of the eye they hit 100.....the center of Fran went 100 miles SW of us but we peaked at 106 here.....Florence and Dorian never broke 50....Irene was the same distance away as both Flo and Dorian and we got cane gust.....a lot comes down to the structure of the storm, is it ramping up or down, how big is the core winds etc.....

At this point it sure looks like MBY will be within 50-100 miles of the center of this storm....guess we shall see what we get but I will hedge my bets and get ready for a legit cane and no power for 3 days.
 
Shaggy said:
Me and downeastnc continue to "debate" the proper crossing through NC. He is of the belief a track even through the sounds is sufficient i say the core right up between 95 and 17 or bust!
Click to expand...
Bring her right up 95 or 40. Either one would bring me pretty darn good conditions . 40 perhaps more so as I would be East , ne of the center and in the worse part of the eye wall. Fran pretty much went right up 40! Eye was over downtown Raleigh . 6 + hours of 60 mph sustained winds, even had a period of sustained hurricane winds with gusts into the 80s parts of the county. Hazel though would take the cake , think sustained winds in Raleigh airport which mind you is pretty nw in the county were 78 mph I believe at peak, not gusts but sustained 2 minute winds ! can’t imagine how intense they were say in southern wake county !
 
Verbatim the 6z euro would be a big sigh of relief for NC residents. The remnants would likely get swept up and bring some rain to the area and some gusty winds maybe but that’s about it.
 
I'm just going to watch where it goes today before speculating where it's going. The storm might flare back up and intensify as well as reorganize. The Euro shifting seems weird but I also want to see the 12Z suite.
 
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