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Misc This Means WAR

Rain Cold

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Go ahead and post war things here. And let's not get political and degenerate into arguing and contaminating the site with animosity.
 
Multiple deaths from a missile strike in Israel

Most of the strikes in Israel haven't had deaths due to the warning systems
 
Neither side wants war and that’s very evident. The Israelis obviously felt the need to set back Iran’s weapons program and Iran isn’t going to take that laying down.

However.

This was just about the logical conclusion when it all kicked off. Israel is stretched as far as they can go. Their aviation can only loiter in the northwestern corner of Iran and make hero runs to Tehran with aerial refueling and drop tanks. Even using their air launched ballistic missiles they can’t really touch the eastern half of Iran. They’ve wrecked quite a bit of Iran’s ability to saturate their own defenses which has been evident with Iran pulling their more accurate, maneuverable, and expensive missiles out of storage since the cheap stuff is almost gone. Not too many of those available though. Something of note is that Iran only used ballistic missiles and a small number of drones. As far as I’ve seen they haven’t used any of their relatively advanced cruise missile stockpile. The sea skimming ones they have are especially a thorn in the side of everyone on the Persian Gulf because they’re fast and difficult to interdict. Not that the ballistics are “easy” but those systems are more mature and work a lot better against the threat.

Both nations are operating under extreme wartime censorship right now. We’ve seen a few videos from Israel of missiles striking urban areas but nothing of them hitting military targets. We know they’ve been getting hit just no way to know how much. News reports indicate replenishment of interceptor missiles was not enough to backfill so had this gone on much longer they’d be in a world of hurt. Same story with Iran we have some civilians images and some from the Israeli Air Force but not much. Their leadership has been taken out to such a degree I’m surprised their coordination is as good as it is for counter-strikes.

The US campaign is still a bit of a mystery. We don’t have a clue if the Fordow facility got rattled or destroyed. The math says destruction was unlikely but you never know. Getting through a couple hundred feet of sandstone and granite plus concrete is a bit fantastical. May or may not matter much in the end as the hard part is done for Iran as far as enrichment goes. They can easily keep plugging away “underground” even with so much leadership now gone. You can’t close Pandora’s box as they say and the knowledge won’t die with them.

As far as I know the Ayatollah still hasn’t publicly come off his position of WMDs being not allowed under his interpretation of Islam. It’s funny to think he may have been the reason they’ve stuck in the threshold status for so long despite the IRGC pushing hard for the bomb. The old man’s days are numbered though. With the regime still intact we’ll have to wait and see what his ultimate successor does. I don’t know the exact date of the Fatwa but it wasn’t recent. I personally don’t buy the opinion that as soon as they get the bomb they’d blow up Israel. In no case should they get it, but let’s be honest people like to live and you don’t live a long life by guaranteeing your own destruction.

Our attack was very clearly meant as a show of force. Lots of retired commanders making the rounds today not going so far as to criticize the administration, but bringing to light this one attack has depleted roughly half of our GBU-57 stock and by utilizing 17 of the 19 B2s, it puts us in an awkward position as far as fleet maintenance in the near future. I’ve seen some questions wrt deterrence vis a vis Russian and China in just don’t see how this affects their view in any way. A westpac war will be a couple weeks of firing every long range standoff munition each side has then who knows. We’d be hard pressed to get tankers anywhere near the Chinese mainland for the B2 to do its thing there.
 
Brent said:
Multiple deaths from a missile strike in Israel

Most of the strikes in Israel haven't had deaths due to the warning systems
Click to expand...
It’ll be interesting to see how degraded their military installations are. They’ve been getting hit we just don’t know how much or how due to wartime censorship. Far as I know the big commercial sat companies aren’t making imagery available of Israeli sites at this time.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Neither side wants war and that’s very evident. The Israelis obviously felt the need to set back Iran’s weapons program and Iran isn’t going to take that laying down.

However.

This was just about the logical conclusion when it all kicked off. Israel is stretched as far as they can go. Their aviation can only loiter in the northwestern corner of Iran and make hero runs to Tehran with aerial refueling and drop tanks. Even using their air launched ballistic missiles they can’t really touch the eastern half of Iran. They’ve wrecked quite a bit of Iran’s ability to saturate their own defenses which has been evident with Iran pulling their more accurate, maneuverable, and expensive missiles out of storage since the cheap stuff is almost gone. Not too many of those available though. Something of note is that Iran only used ballistic missiles and a small number of drones. As far as I’ve seen they haven’t used any of their relatively advanced cruise missile stockpile. The sea skimming ones they have are especially a thorn in the side of everyone on the Persian Gulf because they’re fast and difficult to interdict. Not that the ballistics are “easy” but those systems are more mature and work a lot better against the threat.

Both nations are operating under extreme wartime censorship right now. We’ve seen a few videos from Israel of missiles striking urban areas but nothing of them hitting military targets. We know they’ve been getting hit just no way to know how much. News reports indicate replenishment of interceptor missiles was not enough to backfill so had this gone on much longer they’d be in a world of hurt. Same story with Iran we have some civilians images and some from the Israeli Air Force but not much. Their leadership has been taken out to such a degree I’m surprised their coordination is as good as it is for counter-strikes.

The US campaign is still a bit of a mystery. We don’t have a clue if the Fordow facility got rattled or destroyed. The math says destruction was unlikely but you never know. Getting through a couple hundred feet of sandstone and granite plus concrete is a bit fantastical. May or may not matter much in the end as the hard part is done for Iran as far as enrichment goes. They can easily keep plugging away “underground” even with so much leadership now gone. You can’t close Pandora’s box as they say and the knowledge won’t die with them.

As far as I know the Ayatollah still hasn’t publicly come off his position of WMDs being not allowed under his interpretation of Islam. It’s funny to think he may have been the reason they’ve stuck in the threshold status for so long despite the IRGC pushing hard for the bomb. The old man’s days are numbered though. With the regime still intact we’ll have to wait and see what his ultimate successor does. I don’t know the exact date of the Fatwa but it wasn’t recent. I personally don’t buy the opinion that as soon as they get the bomb they’d blow up Israel. In no case should they get it, but let’s be honest people like to live and you don’t live a long life by guaranteeing your own destruction.

Our attack was very clearly meant as a show of force. Lots of retired commanders making the rounds today not going so far as to criticize the administration, but bringing to light this one attack has depleted roughly half of our GBU-57 stock and by utilizing 17 of the 19 B2s, it puts us in an awkward position as far as fleet maintenance in the near future. I’ve seen some questions wrt deterrence vis a vis Russian and China in just don’t see how this affects their view in any way. A westpac war will be a couple weeks of firing every long range standoff munition each side has then who knows. We’d be hard pressed to get tankers anywhere near the Chinese mainland for the B2 to do its thing there.
Click to expand...

My guess if a war with China does take place, I would would think that using forty year old stealth bombers would probably be a later thing. I’d bet the world would learn about the B21 quickly.

If this attack was a show of force, it was that our B2s could still zip around the world with seemingly nobody noticing.
 
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I just read that oil prices are tumbling now! So all the worries and talk of 5$ a gallon gas soon, may not be a reality!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I just read that oil prices are tumbling now! So all the worries and talk of 5$ a gallon gas soon, may not be a reality!
Click to expand...
Yeah, most of our oil now is coming from here locally. That Strait hurts countries in Asia, the Middle East, and especially Iran itself...it's almost an economic suicide
 
Tarheel1 said:
I just read that oil prices are tumbling now! So all the worries and talk of 5$ a gallon gas soon, may not be a reality!
Click to expand...

Yeah the problem is Iran would destroy their economy if they tried anything

This has been my whole issue all along with the Iran hype fear doom whatever you want to call it... They don't have many options on making this into a larger war or truly threatening us. Like their missiles ain't gonna make it to the mainland and $5 gas well isn't gonna end well for them
 
Iran closing the Straits is a very low probability event and not something I’ve seen politicians I worked for ever spend much time worrying about.
 
Trump messed up after the Strike on the nukes Sat night. That was great but then he should have followed up with unconditional surrender like he was talking about. He should have given Iran the terms of surrender to sign immediately or Israel will just keep bombing. The terms should have been "The United States has full access to all nuke facilities to monitor them anytime it wants". Now we begin all over again the long drawn out never ending negotiations that leads back to Iran continuing to develop nukes..
 
lexxnchloe said:
Trump messed up after the Strike on the nukes Sat night. That was great but then he should have followed up with unconditional surrender like he was talking about. He should have given Iran the terms of surrender to sign immediately or Israel will just keep bombing. The terms should have been "The United States has full access to all nuke facilities to monitor them anytime it wants".
Click to expand...
That’s not how any of this works. It would be de jure admission the US is a party to the conflict (yes that legalese matters) and Iran knows the US isn’t going to invade making the demands toothless. Air strikes alone have a ceiling that falls well short of that kind of leverage.
 
ChrisAMB said:
That’s not how any of this works. It would be de jure admission the US is a party to the conflict (yes that legalese matters) and Iran knows the US isn’t going to invade making the demands toothless. Air strikes alone have a ceiling that falls well short of that kind of leverage.
Click to expand...
I think the bombing Sat Night was admission we had joined the party. It was a half done job that will yield half done results. Iran getting a nuke was delayed, but just that.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Trump messed up after the Strike on the nukes Sat night. That was great but then he should have followed up with unconditional surrender like he was talking about. He should have given Iran the terms of surrender to sign immediately or Israel will just keep bombing. The terms should have been "The United States has full access to all nuke facilities to monitor them anytime it wants". Now we begin all over again the long drawn out never ending negotiations that leads back to Iran continuing to develop nukes..
Click to expand...

I don't think it is that simple. I see two ways of thinking here.

1. The nothing ever truely changes way of thinking. In this scenario, your opinion is correct except for the fact that this is nothing more than a cyclical situation that will just repeat itself over and over again, never progressing or ending.

2. The end goal is to force a regime change and that was always the goal, not the nukes. In this situation you just keep bombing the Iran military(they can't stop you.) Until the populace grows annoyed and dumps the Mullahs.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I think the bombing Sat Night was admission we had joined the party. It was a half done job that will yield half done results. Iran getting a nuke was delayed, but just that.
Click to expand...
I beg to differ on half done.
From what I've seen, it was a decimation of the nuclear energy targets. The GB57 penetrative deep into the ground and have delayed fuses so while there doesn't appear to be as much "surface" damage, they obliterate deep within the ground, which in this case, the underground bunkers.

What that one strike did was show just a little taste of what can be done. I mean they only sent 3 stealths to carry this out and a handful of tomahawk missiles for the surface targets.
 
Arcc said:
I don't think it is that simple. I see two ways of thinking here.

1. The nothing ever truely changes way of thinking. In this scenario, your opinion is correct except for the fact that this is nothing more than a cyclical situation that will just repeat itself over and over again, never progressing or ending.

2. The end goal is to force a regime change and that was always the goal, not the nukes. In this situation you just keep bombing the Iran military(they can't stop you.) Until the populace grows annoyed and dumps the Mullahs.
Click to expand...
If forcing a regime change was always the goal then negotiating with the Mullahs gives then credibility. We failed 100% if the goal was regime change.
 
Stormsfury said:
I beg to differ on half done.
From what I've seen, it was a decimation of the nuclear energy targets. The GB57 penetrative deep into the ground and have delayed fuses so while there doesn't appear to be as much "surface" damage, they obliterate deep within the ground, which in this case, the underground bunkers.

What that one strike did was show just a little taste of what can be done. I mean they only sent 3 stealths to carry this out and a handful of tomahawk missiles for the surface targets.
Click to expand...
I have no doubt the Iran nuke program was delayed. I see this like if in WW2 we had just landed in Normandy and then told Hitler lets negotiate. You can stay in power as long as you promise with a cherry on top to be nice.
 
If this is right then Trump made a disastrous decision to allow the Iranian nuke program to exist.




It will be easy enough to know if its true. If Iran isnt interested in talks and just slow walks and agrees to nothing then Iran knows Trump gave them the bomb and took a dump on Israel.
 
If Trump failed and Iran will have a bomb in a few months he should be impeached

Where Is Iran's Uranium? Top Secret Leaked US Intel Says Core Nuclear Components 'Intact' | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

As we stated before, it is especially the Iranian hardliners which will understand the 'two paths' before Iran:

1) Become a failed state like Libya after 'giving up' nuclear or WMD potential (precisely as Gaddafi did when offered 'incentives' by Bush/Cheney/Rice.
Click to expand...
2) Or, become North Korea and you are immune from regime change wars launched by the West.
Click to expand...
Tehran certainly knows this, and has likely already chosen path #2 - at a moment Israeli leadership is probably worried about a future nuclear dirty bomb going off in Tel Aviv. In many ways, Trump's brazen bombing operation - which as usual saw the commander-in-chief completely bypass Congress, took things from bad to worse.

Update(1116ET): On Tuesday the head of Iran's nuclear energy program vowed that the country will continue its nuclear program uninterrupted, despite the Trump-ordered weekend heavy bombings of three key nuclear and uranium enrichment sites.

AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) head Mohammad Eslami said on state television that "plans for restarting [the facilities] have been prepared in advance" and that measures ensuring continued production are in place.

"Despite the evil conspiracies of its enemies," the AEOI said in the statement, "this organization will not allow the path of development of this national industry to be stopped."

So Iran has agreed to nothing whatsoever in exchange for Trump stopping the bombing. This may go down as the greatest miltary disaster since Nam.
 
Snowfan said:

Click to expand...

It seems to me Iran considers themselves victorious in the 12 day war. Trump ended the war before he got Iran to sign terms of surrender. This is no different than us and the Russians deciding in July of 1944 that we will stop fighting and hope Hitler will be a nice person. Trump the dealmaker made a stinker.
 
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lexxnchloe said:
If this is right then Trump made a disastrous decision to allow the Iranian nuke program to exist.




It will be easy enough to know if its true. If Iran isnt interested in talks and just slow walks and agrees to nothing then Iran knows Trump gave them the bomb and took a dump on Israel.
Click to expand...

The US military isn’t an invincible leviathan from a novel. We have limits to what we can accomplish just like every other country. Iran is a relatively modern and very much not poor nation of 90+ million people 1/3 the size of the contiguous US that is stuck under the thumb of a terrible theocracy.

Delaying breakout was the goal of the mission from all accounts. Medium term non-proliferation is going to be a struggle and we have to decide how much we’re willing to expend to keep that status quo. My guess is not that much while we face China.
 
ChrisAMB said:
The US military isn’t an invincible leviathan from a novel. We have limits to what we can accomplish just like every other country. Iran is a relatively modern and very much not poor nation of 90+ million people 1/3 the size of the contiguous US that is stuck under the thumb of a terrible theocracy.

Delaying breakout was the goal of the mission from all accounts. Medium term non-proliferation is going to be a struggle and we have to decide how much we’re willing to expend to keep that status quo. My guess is not that much while we face China.
Click to expand...
The way to keep Iran from getting nukes was to kill their govt leaders. We shrank form that and told Israel no. Iran won and won big.
 
Trump is out there now boasting how China can buy oil from Iran with no sanctions at all. Amazing. We got nothing at all from the war except to guarantee China wasnt harmed.

Ugh

1750799279583.png
So it was trumps goal to ensure Iran can make plenty of oil money to fund terror and build nukes?
 
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Obviously we have to wait until we get credible intelligence from the ground, but it seems that overall the operation was a success. Some will not call anything other than regime change a success, and that could still be the case, but for our security and the security of our interests in the region, the goal was to set back the Iranian Nuclear Program, not regime change.

I believe we made our statement with the mission and all parties involved, particularly Iran, have the chance to make peace work. Do I have faith that Iran will live up to its end? Honestly no, I do not. Trying to keep politics out of this, I think Trump has shown with the attack and giving Israel the go ahead, that while he is in office Iran better get in line or else he will allow Israel the go ahead to do what needs to be done.
 
DCK said:
Obviously we have to wait until we get credible intelligence from the ground, but it seems that overall the operation was a success. Some will not call anything other than regime change a success, and that could still be the case, but for our security and the security of our interests in the region, the goal was to set back the Iranian Nuclear Program, not regime change.

I believe we made our statement with the mission and all parties involved, particularly Iran, have the chance to make peace work. Do I have faith that Iran will live up to its end? Honestly no, I do not. Trying to keep politics out of this, I think Trump has shown with the attack and giving Israel the go ahead, that while he is in office Iran better get in line or else he will allow Israel the go ahead to do what needs to be done.
Click to expand...

Right I don't think we were trying to do regime change or get stuck in another endless war. Trump is better than that and said as much... That's why there was so much of a struggle in the days before he did it. The fear it could lead to that. I mean you had people on his side who didn't even want to get involved at all. We wanted them to see that we aren't playing around anymore after years of coddling them

I think it was a success just based off that but I digress. I mean I hope the nuke program is set back decades too but we'll see. I don't really believe what Iran says either but the fact they admit it could be badly damaged should make you stop and think that maybe it was because they've been spinning this as a victory for them and clearly that goes against that narrative
 
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