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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

Storm5 said:
NAM
GfS
CMC

Looks like many areas across the southeast will see beneficial rainfall
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Thanks Storm, just had a huge downpour at my house now the sun is out..
 
I will admit, this is a storm that is a very tough one to call. The whole process of when, and if, does it transform into a purely tropical system. How fast can that happen.....There is a TON of dry air over the central and western gulf right now, still a ton of shear as well.
 
Claycochaser said:
So here's a question...why wasn't Alberto retired after 1994? That was a billion dollar event with widespread impact.
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ForsythSnow said:
Sounds reasonable, as the WPC has us up to 5 inches the next week. Also, the east shift will bring even more rain, so up to half a foot is possible. Need it after a few days of nothing. This will probably put the local lakes way higher again, as it's already a foot above. They may even have to do more frequent and longer releases as they did a few years ago when they let it get 4 feet above.
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pcbjr said:
??????

View attachment 5308
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deltadog03 said:
I will admit, this is a storm that is a very tough one to call. The whole process of when, and if, does it transform into a purely tropical system. How fast can that happen.....There is a TON of dry air over the central and western gulf right now, still a ton of shear as well.
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I still think the track is too far west and NNW,,,and am furious that this name was not retired.. I lost two very close friends in Montezuma, GA from 25 inches of rain ,,,Brings back very bad memories not only for me but I think for countless others who also lost loved ones..
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 262357
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 84.8 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily
to the east of the center. Key West, Florida recently reported a
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Brent said:
Looks like strengthening has occurred per recon
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Interesting stuff going on getting into a nice pattern of upper divergence but may eat more dry air on its west and southwest side. If it can develop a real core before any dry air is ingested it might look like a real storm by tomorrow evening

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deltadog03 said:
I will admit, this is a storm that is a very tough one to call. The whole process of when, and if, does it transform into a purely tropical system. How fast can that happen.....There is a TON of dry air over the central and western gulf right now, still a ton of shear as well.
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You can see the center jump around a bit on the 0z nam. You are right until the system forms a real core and center its going to be a tough forecast. You have to favor east with the most intense convection on that side until it disconnects from this subtropical look

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Brent said:
70 mph surface in the VDM hmmmm

Gotta be flagged but why is it even there
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Surprise it's not. However, because it's only 1, it's probably not accurate. However, I feel like we can say Alberto is safely at least 45 mph next advisory, or at the highest 55 mph since there are some ~45 knot readings. I think it will be 50 though.
 
000
WTNT41 KNHC 270307 CCA
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Corrected typo in key message 3

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven
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97AE8C93-8E2A-4E5C-9AA4-0C424C2F973F.png 074F4C4D-0B3D-42B6-B29D-67E3A76E409E.png B263F0A2-2CE6-4D90-AA72-FB6870C7A995.png 4904BCDF-4DFB-45C2-AB2F-2D9050C2FE9F.png The always un-reliable NAM (both 3KM and 12KM) are EAST on the 00z runs.
Edit...... I mean let’s see if east trend continues with other models as well.

12km nam
 
Gfs around same area as 18z with that sharp right hook.
 
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