• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Weather Threat April 28-29th

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
15,727
Reaction score
54,024
Location
Desert Southwest ?
We're likely looking at one of the largest severe weather outbreaks of the season late this weekend and into next weekend across the south-central plains as a wave packet in the Pacific Jet and corresponding 170+ knot upper level jet streak invoke the development of a deep trough in the Rockies which ejects from the four corners region on Friday. Ahead of this trough, excellent moisture return and shear will be prevalent, with dew points and precipitable water values nearing the mid-upper 60s and 1.5-2 inches respectively, bulk shear ~ 50-75 knots, and CAPE around 2500-4000+ j/kg, we certainly have the necessary ingredients for a major severe weather outbreak across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas Friday & Saturday. Post away!

bs0500.conus.png

ecmwf_cape_slp_tx_25.png

day6prob.gif

day7prob.gif
 
If there's one glaring concern I have regarding this setup, it's moisture return... The fact that there's so much CAPE further south towards south-central and eastern TX (approaching 4000-5000+ j/kg in some areas), unless we have a prolific capping inversion in place, convection may fire down there relatively quickly, and if so, that could seriously rob areas further north w/ better shear towards Oklahoma and Kansas of any viable moisture influx...
 
Webberweather53 said:
If there's one glaring concern I have regarding this setup, it's moisture return... The fact that there's so much CAPE further south towards south-central and eastern TX (approaching 4000-5000+ j/kg in some areas), unless we have a prolific capping inversion in place, convection may fire down there relatively quickly, and if so, that could seriously rob areas further north w/ better shear towards Oklahoma and Kansas of any viable moisture influx...
Click to expand...

Fully Agree!
 
Right now the euro and gfs really crap out the cape once it hits the Mississippi River . This is no doubt a big Texas Oklahoma Louisiana and Arkansas threat . But things really die off the further east you go east of the Mississippi

12z euro
82944c0e93ae953e6442fc5581834ab0.jpg


12z gfs
4d770aa410fa4df7e71de4ac5bc93ed1.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Right now the euro and gfs really crap out the cape once it hits the Mississippi River . This is no doubt a big Texas Oklahoma Louisiana and Arkansas threat . But things really die off the further east you go


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
who needs wind? who is complaining?
just need some damn precip ...
 
Storm5 said:
Right now the euro and gfs really crap out the cape once it hits the Mississippi River . This is no doubt a big Texas Oklahoma Louisiana and Arkansas threat . But things really die off the further east you go east of the Mississippi

12z euro
82944c0e93ae953e6442fc5581834ab0.jpg


12z gfs
4d770aa410fa4df7e71de4ac5bc93ed1.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah but if you look at Friday the front stalls out somewhere into the Tn Valley in the early morning then lifts north into the lower OV.Should be some strong storms in this area Friday afternoon.The map you post is more or less the frontal passage..IMHO there will be some possible strong storms into the Tn Valley Friday
 
Jaxjagman said:
Yeah but if you look at Friday the front stalls out somewhere into the Tn Valley in the early morning then lifts north into the lower OV.Should be some strong storms in this area Friday afternoon.The map you post is more or less the frontal passage..IMHO there will be some possible strong storms into the Tn Valley Friday
Click to expand...

I very much agree . Great points
f926c1baf8698654e30cab193c0517c7.jpg
d324100b935e270384844172a757ad46.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
0z GFS tries to make Thursday afternoon/evening interesting for Alabama and Georgia, although dynamics aren't great and moisture is somewhat lacking
 
Nice to see Alabama sit one late April threat out for a change.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top