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Severe Severe Weather Threat: 12/27-12/28

Bama Ravens

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Location
Morris, AL (Northern Jefferson County)
Not an especially significant threat, but worth starting a thread.

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Mid-South into the Southeast...
  Present indications suggest that isolated to scattered elevated
  thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the early evening
  ahead of the front across the Mid-South as large-scale ascent
  associated with the upper trough overspreads this region. This
  initial activity may pose a marginal risk for hail, as 850-500-mb
  lapse rates around 6.5-7.0 degrees C/km support elevated instability
  generally ranging from 500-1000 J/kg.

  Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of
  the cold front by this evening across the Mid-South and lower MS
  Valley. Convection should initiate across the lower MS Valley around
  03-05Z with the arrival of the front. Forecast soundings from the
  NAM, RAP, and HRRR indicate generally southwesterly low-level winds
  veering to westerly and strengthening at mid levels. The strength of
  the low-level winds and linear forcing along the front suggest
  strong to locally damaging wind gusts may occur with bowing line
  segments from late this evening into the overnight hours across the
  lower MS Valley into the Southeast.

  There may also be some marginal potential for a tornado or two with
  this evening/overnight activity, as sufficient veering of winds in
  the low levels combines with modest instability to support some
  updraft organization and near-surface-based effective inflow
  parcels. This threat is conditional on a favorable storm mode,
  namely supercells developing along/ahead of the front, which is
  uncertain. The overall severe threat should wane late tonight across
  the Southeast as the cold front undercuts convection, the boundary
  layer gradually stabilizes, and large-scale forcing for ascent
  becomes increasingly displaced to the north.
 
Surprised storms extend over to this way.  I guess the warm front is supposed to lift?
 
Wouldn't be shocked to see some gusty winds with the showers tomorrow morning...850mb and 925mb winds are 40+kt and there should be enough dynamics to force a decently strong band of showers
 
Can t post it but just saw latest HRRR Composite loop... Several "kidney bean" cells overnight into N GA. Looking more significant threat wise.
 
Gotta love the last second uptick in total qpf from the hires models

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Been quiet so far. I still wouldnt rule out a rogue severe warning or two. I guess there could be a tornado warning somewhere but that looks less likely.
 
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2016

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/29/16 TORNADO EVENT...

.Jackson County Tornado...

Rating:                EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    105 mph
Path Length /Statute/:  3.4 miles
Path Width /Maximum/:  250 yards
Fatalities:            0
Injuries:              0

Start Date:            Dec 29 2016
Start Time:            350 AM EST
Start Location:        1.2 miles WSW of Jefferson, GA; 0.3 miles
                        N of Hwy 129 & Winder Hwy
Start Lat/Lon: 34.1078/-83.5913

End Date:              Dec 29 2016
End Time:              400 AM EST
End Location:          2.8 miles SE of Jefferson, GA; 1.4 miles
                        SSE of Jefferson River Rd & Brockton Rd
End_Lat/Lon:            34.0953/-83.5322

Survey Summary: A tornado associated with a nocturnal supercell
within a broken line of storms produced a line of damage to the
south of Jefferson early this morning. The damage path began with
snapped trunks of small trees WSW of Jefferson, just north of HWY
129 and Winder Hwy. The tornado then moved ESE to the intersection
of M.L.K. Jr Dr and Magnolia Ave, uprooting and snapping at least
half a dozen tress and overturning a small storage shed at
Paradise AME Church. The tornado then traversed along Georgia Bell
Dr and Dixie Red Ave, further uprooting trees and causing minor
damage to several homes around the area. The tornado then
continued to the ESE, uprooting trees at the end Meadow Ln, and
along Jefferson River Rd before dissipating just to the NW of
Jefferson River Rd & River Meadows Dr. The maximum winds speeds
estimated within this tornado were between 90-105 MPH, coincident with
a rating of an EF-1.

NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and
subject to change pending final review of the event and
publication in NWS Storm Data.
 
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