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Severe Severe threat May 3-5

GeorgiaGirl said:
If nothing else, everyone should get some more needed rain and there is plenty of time for the line to turn back into some thunderstorms. It's seemingly already trying.
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I am sure getting that right now. But the winds are coming soon. Have a weather statement for up to 45mph gusts with a wake low coming.
 
ForsythSnow,
For those who may not be familiar with the term (since it is of relatively recent vintage) maybe "wake low" ought to be added as a definition, perhaps in the Severe portion of Wiki (maybe in the top section). Do you want to add it? If not, I will when I come up for air ...
Phil
 
Maybe we'll hear some thunder this time.
 
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
GAC069-041800-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0045.170504T1732Z-170504T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
132 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Coffee County in southeastern Georgia...

* Until 200 PM EDT

* At 132 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Douglas, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Douglas around 150 PM EDT.
West Green around 200 PM EDT.
 
Rain Cold said:
Maybe we'll hear some thunder this time.
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Doubt it ! :(
Be lucky to get a 1/4" of rain at this point, will probably be 135 next week after this weekends cold snap. Less than 1/4 of an inch thru day 16
 
The line is definitely forming along the cold front in eastern Alabama. We'll have to see if it holds together, nothing but rain and clouds here all morning, still cloudy now but the rain is gone.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Doubt it ! :(
Be lucky to get a 1/4" of rain at this point, will probably be 135 next week after this weekends cold snap. Less than 1/4 of an inch thru day 16
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No rain for the next forever.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Can I get a translation for what this is showing and when?
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Essentially what this is showing is that there's a legitimate threat of tornadoes during the overnight across NC as a pair of mesolows streak across the state in concert with a 125 knot upper level jet streak over western NC and southwestern VA and southern Virginia. You can see in the sounding profile in the upper left hand corner how the wind barbs (in white) on the right hand side of the picture change quite rapidly just near the bottom of that image from southeasterly to southwesterly several thousand feet up, that's indicative of a robust low level shear, a necessary ingredient in tornado formation. What I'm also pointing out here is the storm relative helicity (or SRH) which essentially measures the potential of updraft rotation in a thunderstorm is pretty high in this case. Although subsequent runs showed appreciably less SRH in/around RDU, you usually only need 100-300 SRH or so to have a favorable environment for tornadoes, we may have double that. My biggest issue with this setup is the possibility of there being too much competing convection that could steal upward motion and convective available potential energy (CAPE) away from other surrounding thunderstorms. In order to have the most favorable environment for tornadoes you not only need a considerable amount of low level shear and instability, but the storms need to be discrete and isolated in nature, as opposed to being conglomerated into multicellular clusters, which may occur here. Even so, there's still a decent shot of a few isolated, brief, spin-ups as a multiple rounds of storms push through central and eastern NC beginning later this evening.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Essentially what this is showing is that there's a legitimate threat of tornadoes during the overnight across NC as a pair of mesolows streak across the state in concert with a 125 knot upper level jet streak over western NC and southwestern VA and southern Virginia. You can see in the sounding profile in the upper left hand corner how the wind barbs (in white) on the right hand side of the picture change quite rapidly just near the bottom of that image from southeasterly to southwesterly several thousand feet up, that's indicative of a robust low level shear, a necessary ingredient in tornado formation. What I'm also pointing out here is the storm relative helicity (or SRH) which essentially measures the potential of updraft rotation in a thunderstorm is pretty high in this case. Although subsequent runs showed appreciably less SRH in/around RDU, you usually only need 100-300 SRH or so to have a favorable environment for tornadoes, we may have double that. My biggest issue with this setup is the possibility of there being too much competing convection that could steal upward motion and convective available potential energy (CAPE) away from other surrounding thunderstorms. In order to have the most favorable environment for tornadoes you not only need a considerable amount of low level shear and instability, but the storms need to be discrete and isolated in nature, as opposed to being conglomerated into multicellular clusters, which may occur here. Even so, there's still a decent shot of a few isolated, brief, spin-ups as a multiple rounds of storms push through central and eastern NC beginning later this evening.
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Got it. Guess we'll have to see if we get the multiple rounds of storms first. That has been hard to come by. Seems lately they fizzle or miss the Triangle for the most part.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Got it. Guess we'll have to see if we get the multiple rounds of storms first. That has been hard to come by. Seems lately they fizzle or miss the Triangle for the most part.
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Brick (and anyone else) -

There is a great section in Wiki that ForsythSnow inserted on soundings (and so many other things/info can be found in Wiki, as well).

The link for the soundings info is http://wiki.southernwx.com/doku.php?id=sounding

Enjoy!

Phil
 
pcbjr said:
ForsythSnow,
For those who may not be familiar with the term (since it is of relatively recent vintage) maybe "wake low" ought to be added as a definition, perhaps in the Severe portion of Wiki (maybe in the top section). Do you want to add it? If not, I will when I come up for air ...
Phil
Click to expand...
Unfortunately I don't know too much about wake lows, only that they cause winds.
 
This is soooooo much better than what we were seeing probably just a mere week ago. If I had the pick between 92 and it feeling hotter than that with low-mid 70s and rain, I'd pick this every time. I'd eventually be sick of the rain, but its nice to feel cool and comfortable again.
 
Incoming ...

Screen_Shot_2017-05-04_at_5.46.46_PM.png
 
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
534 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

FLZ022-023-030-031-036-042215-
Columbia FL-Baker FL-Union FL-Alachua FL-Bradford FL-
534 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ALACHUA...WEST CENTRAL
BRADFORD...SOUTHWESTERN BAKER...UNION AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 615
PM EDT...

At 533 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lake City to near Providence to 6 miles
southwest of Williston Highlands. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Lake City, Lake Butler, Worthington Spring, Columbia,
Alachua, High Springs, Archer, Worthington Springs and Palestine
Community.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
 
OK - I added info about wake lows in Wiki but due to time constraints, can't do much better, or more, for a while; if anyone wants to contribute to that section, please, please have at it!
 
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