• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Threat December 5th-6th

Status
Not open for further replies.
Been watching this time frame.  SPC highlights Eastern half of Louisiana into Southern Mississippi for day 5.

DESPITE SOME RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
  CONSISTENT IN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING
  NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
  MONDAY.  TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS A BIT
  SLOWER/FARTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED...ADDING ADDITIONAL
  UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT
  AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.  TYPICALLY...SUCH VARIABILITY ON DAY 5
  WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE AREAL DELINEATION OF A SEVERE RISK AREA.
  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...
  A MODESTLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
  LAYER...HAVE OPTED TO OUTLINE A FOCUSED 15 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
  MONDAY WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS.  SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT
  TO THE RISK AREA AND PROBABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT
  OUTLOOKS.
 
BMX thoughts from forecast discussion:

A surface low will likely form near the upper Texas coast on Monday
and shift rapidly northeast as the main short wave trof ejects out
of northern Mexico. A low level jet will develop across the
central Gulf coast states with 60+ surface dewpoints pushing into
south Alabama Monday afternoon. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the inland surge of higher dewpoints than the ECMWF, and its
convective parameters are higher with regards to CAPE and lifted
indices. The GFS model would produce a minimal threat of severe
storms to the far southern counties Monday afternoon and evening,
but will hold off mentioning severe wording in any of our hazard
products due to more stable ECMWF model.
 
Bama Ravens link said:
BMX thoughts from forecast discussion:

A surface low will likely form near the upper Texas coast on Monday
and shift rapidly northeast as the main short wave trof ejects out
of northern Mexico. A low level jet will develop across the
central Gulf coast states with 60+ surface dewpoints pushing into
south Alabama Monday afternoon. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the inland surge of higher dewpoints than the ECMWF, and its
convective parameters are higher with regards to CAPE and lifted
indices. The GFS model would produce a minimal threat of severe
storms to the far southern counties Monday afternoon and evening,
but will hold off mentioning severe wording in any of our hazard
products due to more stable ECMWF model.
I imagine that it will be to stable in my neck of the woods. Looks like we will have our first true CAD rain event.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
AL_swody1.png
 
Anybody hear about a tornado in Dawsonville this week?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top