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Severe Threat 10/24 - 10/26

Looking at other parameters it seems the main threat will be straight line winds and maybe some large hail, in my opinion. Never can rule out a spinner or two.
 
Still a few different model outcomes it looks like.

What's interesting is the WRF model suites. With the clear cut storm cells And not a linear mess. Usually for convective mode WRF models are preferred. Your highest threat area will be that mesh point in west central Alabama.

It looks fairly reasonable for a decent 1000j of sbcape tommorow depending on cloud cover. Alot of the northern extent of severe storms will really depend on how well it destabilizes, or you'll be running off those 100-200j spinning tops with damaging wind gusta as soon as you get north of i-20.

Those cells really get pushed off and rolling at that pinch in south Mississippi. uh03_max.us_se.png
 
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
846 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2022

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT.

* AT 846 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER JARRELL, OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SERENADA, MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GEORGETOWN, GRANGER, SERENADA, BARTLETT, JARRELL, WEIR, GEORGETOWN
DAM, SUN CITY, GRANGER DAM, THEON, LANEPORT, HOXIE, HARE, WALBURG,
SCHWERTNER AND SANDOVAL.
 
South of Jarrell I hear tractor trailers have been blown over.

I'm low on battery so won't be researching.
 

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Always learning here, so don't shoot me if I blow this but looking at 12km Nam does it not appear to be giving a more neutral to a slight negative tilt as the Low advects off to the North? The isobars are still oriented in a positive tilt, however, all that energy seems to circulate around in a neutral to negative fashion.. It may not mean a thing, just an observation and sharing for input. If my thinking is correct this setup always tends to bring surprises this time of year! To the southeast. anyway back to your regularly scheduled programming, pounce on my observation at will.
namconus_z500_vort_us_24.png
 
Hpdb301 said:
Always learning here, so don't shoot me if I blow this but looking at 12km Nam does it not appear to be giving a more neutral to a slight negative tilt as the Low advects off to the North? The isobars are still oriented in a positive tilt, however, all that energy seems to circulate around in a neutral to negative fashion.. It may not mean a thing, just an observation and sharing for input. If my thinking is correct this setup always tends to bring surprises this time of year! To the southeast. anyway back to your regularly scheduled programming, pounce on my observation at will.
namconus_z500_vort_us_24.png
Click to expand...
I think talking nonsense is the normal for this forum at least in my case lol. That trough looks pretty negative tilt at the point in time that you show though. I think it starts turning from neutral to negative about when the severe storm chance starts
 
Something to note the 5 percent tornado risk was expanded quite a bit into Alabama.

Spc wording makes it seem as if a close eye is being kept on the possibility or raising or broading of the risk area. As mentioned with possibly a organized severe weather event materializing. Probably a damaging wind event from squall line. But mesovorticies are very annoying.
 
Some schools are starting to dismiss early. In northwest Alabama
 
Any of you folks in west Alabama pay attention. Spann posted this
 
Wouldn't be surprised for a upgrade to enhanced 10% tornado risk on the MS/AL border. Model forecast on thermodynamics is below the actual thermodynamics being observed. Warm front is currently stretching down through about the western 3rd of Alabama
 
It seems like things are supposed to flair up here soon. Cape is pushing 1500 in portions of west Alabama
 
Wrapping up some more, it must be riding the boundary, because it's very close to the warm front Screenshot_20221025-140443.png
 
If this severe threat were Halloween candy, it would be god awful candy corn.
 
Well, glad this is a nothing burger so far for central AL. Maybe if I start all severe threads it would be like this. Things that make you go, hmmmmmmmm!?
 
Big pool of unstable air near these storms Let's have a watch and see. Screenshot_20221025-160733.png
 
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