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Pattern September Somnolence (2 Viewers)

MBell

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Well, as I have decided to postpone my relocation to California until Spring, looks like I'll have another winter here in North GA....lol. With that said, the models were showing a pretty decent cool down toward the end of the month but it looks like that is getting pushed back and back each run lol. But, honestly that is usually the norm this time of year.... just hope the heat relaxes a bit as it's been hellish with the heat this month! #ReadyForFall #ReadyForWinter
 
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Phase 8-1 MJO (Eastern Pacific/W Hem) in late September & October actually strongly favors a SE US & the signal is robust beginning in late September, including the first half of the month dampens the signal.



Zoomed in version of the Phase 1 200 hpa height anomalies centered on October 8th via Paul Roundy I showed earlier.



http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
Good to see ph1 temps do moderate. Hopefully as we get into October we can see atleast some seasonal temps.


Screen Shot 2018-09-23 at 9.42.41 AM.png
 
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El NINO is still forecast right? Are things on track so far as in modiki?
A moderate downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave is currently crossing the Pacific & reinforcing an already suppressed thermocline, we should see an El Nino out of this, potentially even a low end, late blooming (late winter/spring) moderate one given how suppressed the thermocline already is. The decay of the Eastern Hemisphere monsoons and retreat of the Intertropical Convergence Zone towards the equator will aid in NINO growth as we get into the fall & winter. The cross-equatorial flow induced by the strong E Hem monsoons this summer have likely stifled this El Nino, once they go away subseasonal forcing and the low-level wind envelope associated with it will become more axissymetric wrt the equator. (there's plenty of literature on this subject) The WWB that's coming in the next few weeks due to the aforementioned Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave interacting w/ a slightly positive ENSO base state & central America monsoon will further suppress the thermocline. The Central America monsoon and +ENSO base state will decelerate and amplify the eastward propagating CCKW by increasing the intensity & coverage of convection within the MJO's envelope, causing some "spectral leakage" of the Kelvin Wave into the MJO's bandwidth. What this actually means is the MJO will move out of the "circle of death" even though it's really not a "true" MJO event in the sense that there's little slower, and more coherent eastward propagation of the subseasonal convective forcing from the Maritime Continent & West Pacific to the Western Hemisphere.

wkxzteq_anm (1).gif


Notice how the Kelvin filtered -VP200 anomalies (the contours) dissipate over the eastern Pacific's longitude, while the GFS might be overdoing this, you can see there's now a lower frequency/slower moving component to the -VP200 anomalies that almost become quasi-stationary between 120W and 60W next week. This is the spectral leakage of the CCKW onto the MJO that I'm talking about above, it's important to understand what portion of the seasonal cycle we're currently in & what the lower frequency, quasi-stationary variability looks like (ENSO for ex) because these features will play a significant role in determining the MJO's phase speed and amplitude over certain areas of the globe.

vp200.GFS.anom.KELVIN.5S-5N (3).png
 
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So maybe I was jumping the gun when I said no more 90’s. But at least we aren’t alone. 80’s in Boston in October. What a time to be alive.


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Well it looks like Raleigh will go the month of September without having a low below 60F, we haven't even been close. It won't be above normal forever.

The EPS doesn't look too bad, highs in the mid-70's and lows approaching low 60's.

Screen Shot 2018-09-24 at 11.25.24 AM.png
 
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There MAY be a light at the end of the tunnel, albeit dim, but the gfs says late next week cooler weather. I just hope it's not just another carrot on a stick.
 

pcbjr

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Certainly am no Larry here ... ;)
... but went back and the September IMBY with the most record highs for the month was 1925, with all those daily records exceeding 95º (8 days at 95º or better IMBY so far this September); on 9/30/25 MBY had the record low for September ... 38º ... hopefully the point being ... something or other positive ... :confused:
... this was the winter that ensued ...

compday.2001-579-2424-31-7d06-600b-2a3b-6b1d.267.13.53.4.gif

compday.2001-579-2424-31-7d06-600b-2a3b-6b1d.267.14.0.48.gif

hope ...
 
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MBell

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Northwest GA got rocked yesterday and last night with heavy rain... it just kept developing and training. Unfortunately, only about .20" made it to me in Lithia Springs (where I am staying through Spring) and today has been cloudy most of the day. I see any hopes of cooler weather have pretty much been shoved back further and further again as well :-(
 

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