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Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

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SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=46.msg2133#msg2133 date=1481811062]
So it looks like this threat all depends on the amount of precip we get, while the one next week looks like it depends on the temps because there will be plenty of precip.

Basically. Precip totals have always been the real question mark with this one. If anything it looks like there might be a trend upward but that's very slight
[/quote]

Seems like it is usually one or the other. Wonder which would be easier to get. More precip than forecasted, or colder temps than forecasted?
 
Here's NWS RAH current thinking on Sat AM. I could see freezing rain advisories being issued if this over performs at all & they'd probably be most likely to pop up towards the Triad

Screen-Shot-2016-12-15-at-10.28.29-AM-1024x777.png
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=46.msg2134#msg2134 date=1481814398]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=46.msg2133#msg2133 date=1481811062]
So it looks like this threat all depends on the amount of precip we get, while the one next week looks like it depends on the temps because there will be plenty of precip.

Basically. Precip totals have always been the real question mark with this one. If anything it looks like there might be a trend upward but that's very slight
[/quote]



Seems like it is usually one or the other. Wonder which would be easier to get. More precip than forecasted, or colder temps than forecasted?
[/quote]

I would lean toward more precip in this scenario. I have a hard time seeing this wedge holding on in our area but stranger things have happened
 
Parallel 3km NAM 8z Sat radar & accumulated precip before it changes to rain across most of central NC. Most see a trace-.05" freezing rain, although a few isolated pockets of 0.1-0.15"+ of freezing rain are showing up here. The precise areas affected will be almost impossible to predict this far in advance, but definitely worth monitoring..

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_44.png


nam3km_apcpn_seus_49.png
 
FWIW, the Euro QPF totals have ticked up just a bit from 0z. Now has a max of .1 just south of the Triad and a little strip up I-85.
 
packfan98 link said:
FWIW, the Euro QPF totals have ticked up just a bit from 0z. Now has a max of .1 just south of the Triad and a little strip up I-85.
Very close - lots of 32 degree readings
 
18z NAM looks a tad more ominous for central NC hi res NAM is not as robust but the slightest uptick in precip is gonna have significant impacts (as mentioned before)
 
metwannabe link said:
18z NAM looks a tad more ominous for central NC hi res NAM is not as robust but the slightest uptick in precip is gonna have significant impacts (as mentioned before)

Yeah, freezing rain forecasts can be really tricky. It doesn't take much to cause problems on the roads, and just a little more precip or a degree or two can make all the difference. We've had some events that weren't supposed to do much end up causing havoc on the roads here before.
 
Fortunately it's late Friday night/early Saturday so hopefully traffic not a real issue plus it warms up quickly so maybe will not be too many issues
 
Honestly, I think what we want to keep any latent heat release from occuring/bringing down the much warmer air from aloft, is just a steady drizzle that just keeps building up to a nice little glaze. If we get something like that, there's no way temps will warm as fast or nearly as much as forecast. Again, the big thing about this "event" will likely end up being the incredible temperature difference as the strong WAA tries to plow the warm front through the very stubborn wedge. It will be a huge temperature battle ground. Temperature maps across North GA will look crazy on Saturday most likely. What comes to mind is February 15, 2016 where temps stayed very close if not a degree or two above freezing in my area but came up to the low 60s in Atlanta. This happened, even with no precip whatsoever.
 
metwannabe link said:
18z NAM looks a tad more ominous for central NC hi res NAM is not as robust but the slightest uptick in precip is gonna have significant impacts (as mentioned before)

To me it looks like the heavier axis of precip is slowly drifting east on the models with the US1 corridor now in the heavier axis on most models. The 1km AGL reflectivity from the 4km NAM makes me wonder if we will just see pockets of light freezing rain versus the more widespread area seen on the NAM/GFS
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=46.msg2212#msg2212 date=1481835897]
18z NAM looks a tad more ominous for central NC hi res NAM is not as robust but the slightest uptick in precip is gonna have significant impacts (as mentioned before)

To me it looks like the heavier axis of precip is slowly drifting east on the models with the US1 corridor now in the heavier axis on most models. The 1km AGL reflectivity from the 4km NAM makes me wonder if we will just see pockets of light freezing rain versus the more widespread area seen on the NAM/GFS
[/quote]
Yeah haven't looked at it much last couple days due to work but it did look like before mby was not in play but now it is, to your point of shifting east.  Who knows.... with this type of setup it probably won't be much but I'd say it has a higher then average bust potential.

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SD link said:
12km NAM cuts back on qpf....shock

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Looks like 4k NAM increased a little Lol....splitting hairs.  I hope this winter doesn't turn out to be a stay up late for freezing drizzle or a few flakes type of year

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Guarantee you 06z NAM or 12z NAM tomorrow does that 11th hour precip explosion just to suck us in

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I sae the 4km certainly has more widespread .05-.1, who knows. I really want to try to find a way for us to start as snow tomorrow but it just doesn't look like its going to happen. Moisture isn't really there in the DGZ and there is a significant dry nose around 900mb. I do think its possible that we start as a period of sleet before going rapidly to rain/freezing rain.
 
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