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Possible severe weather 10/29-10/31

Myfrotho704_

Wen snow
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Euro and CMC are really locked in right now on a solution that supports quite a prolific severe weather threat, and we’ve consistently seen looks that support it in model runs the last few days, hopefully this can be a jinx, if it’s to early @SD you can take action 2FE7314D-10B5-4EC2-AC24-EB68D483F160.png049550EC-14A3-4F54-BD57-581357F7881C.png71B42A07-1CE0-46B9-ACE4-68BDB27D133B.jpegDFBD7503-7447-459D-9242-624C28929C6B.jpegD9CD52D2-80FD-40C2-9791-1F6B90627CCC.png15E57753-865D-4B7A-8C17-BEBD42C5F2BB.png4DF6BF74-14E0-4C59-B0D2-4FB663DD6B8B.jpegCD0E69AA-2434-446D-BFD7-DC4523E9FB93.jpeg
 
Toss. Model has action in wake county but that’s not possible , all action happens south and east of wake county . No action .

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WRAL is saying a second, separate system from Zeta moves through NC tonight, bringing the risk for severe storms. Damaging thunderstorm winds and an isolated tornado will be possible after 9 p.m.
 
It’s especially concerning considering the sun has popped out and we’ve warmed into the low 80s...pretty sure there is plenty of instability for storms to fire.

Dews around 70 too.


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It has that feeling outside like we should get storms, but it's been hard to get them around here all year.
 
RAH still showing a line of storms coming through later tonight.
 
WRAL already preparing us for the letdown.

Here's the status of activity to our west on the radar. There are gusty showers about to move through the Charlotte area. There is no lightning and may not be much in the way of lightning as these storms approach later this evening. @WRALWeather
 
Probably a good thing we aren't more unstable. You got the mail cell north of 40 but those videos east of Charlotte that are kind of in their own environment could be a problem as they move east. KRAX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 10_47 PM.png
 
And now after seeing 99% of the good storms stay to my south and east this year, looks like they are going to miss me to the north this time according to WRAL


Heavy rain and strong winds are moving northeast through Person and northern Orange Counties. Winds could gust between 40 and 50 mph.
 
And once again nothing for the Triangle. Not sure anyone in the Triangle will believe a forecast for severe storms here again until it actually happens after the way this year has been.
 
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So what happened to that lack of instability?
We weren't incredibly unstable last night, we had SB capes around 500 and ML capes around 1000. That was enough to at least combine with the inbound forcing to develop and sustain a skinny shallow line of convection that really didn't have a lot of lightning. Had we had more cape/better ml LR's we would have seen a much more active evening with warnings and likely a decent wind/QLCS tornado event
 
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