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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

My bad for all these posts, anyways
Tornado emergency for leech OK, huge debris ball with this one
 
Worst may have occurred after dark. The flooding and new tornado damages are far from a “bust”. Comparing events rarely work whether it’s tornado outbreaks, snow storms or hurricanes. How many times have people compared storms with Hugo? Or that one over-due ice storm? All we be uniquely different in most cases.
 
Looks like AR and MO are under the gun today. I wouldn't sleep on this.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Areas affected...Western AR and southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211457Z - 211630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A pre-frontal squall line will spread eastward and
northeastward into western Arkansas and southern Missouri through
late morning and early afternoon. Destabilization northward in
advance of the line will support a continued threat for a few
tornadoes with embedded circulations.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal squall line is moving eastward from
eastern OK toward western AR. As a pronounced upstream shortwave
trough begins to eject northeastward from northwest TX and western
OK, an associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward into
KS. The near-surface layer is still stable into southern MO per
surface observations and a 14z SGF sounding. However, the surface
warm sector will spread northward from AR into MO through the
afternoon, as the environment becomes more supportive of
surface-based convection into MO through the afternoon. Strong
deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical shear will support embedded
bowing segments and/or rotating storms within the convective line
into the afternoon. Given strong low-level shear and a moist
environment, there will continue to be a threat for occasional
tornadoes with embedded circulations in the line, as well as
damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The storms will progress
east of tornado watch 205 in the next 1-2 hours, necessitating a new
tornado watch into AR and MO after 16z.

..Thompson/Hart.. 05/21/2019
 
There's another chance of severe weather in the plains this Thursday.
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More 700mb warmth/EML advection from Mexico, if a supercell can develop than it would likely produce a tornado, I wonder how bad chaser convergence is going to be today
I do too but we are on our way back to Houston and gonna set up near Shawnee, Ok to stay south of most of the flooding. No way I wanna be in NE OK today with already flooded roadways and potential for training supercells. We already had a lot of encounters yesterday in south-central Kansas
 
Been quite here the last two days. I guess everyone was disappointed with Monday.

Oh, and there were more tornadoes reported yesterday than Monday. The threats that are less hyped seem to have more numerous and severe tornadoes than those that are again.
 
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