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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND

Snowflowxxl said:
The HIGH RISK is not going to verify. The parameters the SPC put up today were used for events in the past that have been historic. The 95+/95+ had literally only been used ONCE in history. This is going to go down as one of the biggest bust of all time for the SPC. I realize there was tornadoes today and a lot of storms, but based on what the SPC put out today should have been MUCH LARGER. This is a good thing, but it still needs to be pointed out.
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I Pray you are correct. It's still only 7:00 CDT there. If my memory serves me correctly ..... Joplin, MO happened during overnight hours.?.?
 
For people already saying that this is a bust, current STP values (not forecasts) are >12 across south-central OK. MLCAPE is in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, shear is high, etc. I think the SPC was completely warranted in the language and forecast they went with, given that every motivating environmental condition they mentioned in their discussion has been realized (and points towards the probabilities issued).

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The thing is, nothing about the current convective organization and what's happened thus far inspires confidence that the sort of destructive storms this environment could produce, will actually occur over the remaining hours of the event. As I write this, there are zero tornado warnings in Oklahoma. That's a good thing, but it's also incredibly frustrating from a forecasting standpoint. I'm just going to wait a few hours before drawing any conclusions on the severity of today.
 
I guess we can look ahead to the impressive late spring heat wave. Coming this week. Upper 90s ?‍♂️ wowza
 
RVD said:
For people already saying that this is a bust, current STP values (not forecasts) are >12 across south-central OK. MLCAPE is in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, shear is high, etc. I think the SPC was completely warranted in the language and forecast they went with, given that every motivating environmental condition they mentioned in their discussion has been realized (and points towards the probabilities issued).

View attachment 19699

The thing is, nothing about the current convective organization and what's happened thus far inspires confidence that the sort of destructive storms this environment could produce, will actually occur over the remaining hours of the event. As I write this, there are zero tornado warnings in Oklahoma. That's a good thing, but it's also incredibly frustrating from a forecasting standpoint. I'm just going to wait a few hours before drawing any conclusions on the severity of today.
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As Ive watched the events so far Im starting to believe some of the composite numbers were tweaked to show higher numbers. Lots of extreme numbers this year for realitively mundane systems.
 
RVD said:
For people already saying that this is a bust, current STP values (not forecasts) are >12 across south-central OK. MLCAPE is in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, shear is high, etc. I think the SPC was completely warranted in the language and forecast they went with, given that every motivating environmental condition they mentioned in their discussion has been realized (and points towards the probabilities issued).

View attachment 19699

The thing is, nothing about the current convective organization and what's happened thus far inspires confidence that the sort of destructive storms this environment could produce, will actually occur over the remaining hours of the event. As I write this, there are zero tornado warnings in Oklahoma. That's a good thing, but it's also incredibly frustrating from a forecasting standpoint. I'm just going to wait a few hours before drawing any conclusions on the severity of today.
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STP values have been high all day, the problem is the lapse rates are no good.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
STP values have been high all day, the problem is the lapse rates are no good.
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Judging by radar it appears the cap eroded too quickly and SW to SSW shear vectors lined it all out.

The most dangerous storms by far are those in central TX. Shear vectors are more westerly and instability is likely less impedded.
 
Based off this video and hearing that the tornado did lift before hitting much of the town I'd say most of Magnum simultaneously both got lucky, and unlucky:



That severe thunderstorm looked like a tropical storm in some clips I saw. So if you didn't get hit by the tornado you got hit by a severe storm that acted like a tropical storm instead.
 
reaaon why nothing has gotten going that much in the warm sector is becuase of this Cap above 700mb, killing off convection, storms to the SW is possibly cutting off high level/low level flow, allowing this warm layer to get going, or this warm layer could be getting brought from WAA from the SW, this warm layer is saving property and lives, other than that Cap, this sounding is insane, this just goes to show how rare of a setup and how many things allowed for the super outbreak to happen back in 2011 0C8735CD-59FD-435E-B3A2-5763D7608ABC.jpeg
 
Okay one more Magnum tornado thing. This is pretty cool, although it's likely that this tornado didn't meet what its potential could've been. Probably an EF2 based off damage that happened:



Kinda noticed this look on regular radar too.

Edit: I see Myfrotho704 posted the same thing.
 
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They really shouldn’t have closed every single school down in the state. Forecasting tornadoes is always hard but they are also quite isolated to be making such decisions.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
And also
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I may look stupid saying this as Im very rusty in terminology, but I dont believe that is correct. If I remember right and all things considered equal, a Delta V of 90m/s would equal an inbound and outbound wind speed of ~45m/s or 100mph.

If that is correct it really isnt that impressive.
 
Arcc said:
I may look stupid saying this as Im very rusty in terminology, but I dont believe that is correct. If I remember right and all things considered equal, a Delta V of 90m/s would equal an inbound and outbound wind speed of ~45m/s or 100mph.

If that is correct it really isnt that impressive.
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It had to be more than 100mph, heck of a video right here, definitely had that violent look
 
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