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Pattern Nippy November

Rick

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Hello what's the severe threat looking like next week before and after Thanksgiving?
 

Myfrotho704_

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Okay, but so far the models have only shown the SER showing up for a little while. Right now it has been the opposite of what we're used to, with the SER showing up on the models only to be beaten back. Maybe this December will be different. We'll see.
SER is still there, especially around hour 180-240, more transient but looks like our average H5 pattern this past decade, SE Canada vortex, very negative -PNA, obviously can tell the MJO/convection ain’t helping this pattern out, but hey if that -EPO takes over like this shows more towards the end of the run, buckle up F07B52E1-E1A9-470D-82C4-09596AFC6C0A.jpeg
 

metwannabe

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SER is still there, especially around hour 180-240, more transient but looks like our average H5 pattern this past decade, SE Canada vortex, very negative -PNA, obviously can tell the MJO/convection ain’t helping this pattern out, but hey if that -EPO takes over like this shows more towards the end of the run, buckle up View attachment 26301
Agreed but I guess my point earlier was, at least right now, the SER doesn't look like it has staying power. It's there, it will be there some and yeah that's a warm look but if it's just a few days and then beat back, I'm good with that. The heat pump needs a break every now and then anyway...
 

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Personally prefer the GEFS as I loathe GOA ridges...EPS has a NAO and GEFS has the -EPO.

View attachment 26298
I know it's out there and probably doesn't matter but give me the EPS please. The GEFS completely erases the -NAO. I want that to hold firm more or less through the winter to really mix things up. At the end of the run the GEFS starts poking the the SE ridge back up. Everything in the pacific needs to come about 1000 miles east. Pick your poison I guess.

1574371732680.png
 

NoSnowATL

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I know it's out there and probably doesn't matter but give me the EPS please. The GEFS completely erases the -NAO. I want that to hold firm more or less through the winter to really mix things up. At the end of the run the GEFS starts poking the the SE ridge back up. Everything in the pacific needs to come about 1000 miles east. Pick your poison I guess.

View attachment 26303
The good thing is that we have around 3-5 week to play with and see how things trend. I like how things are progressing.


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Myfrotho704_

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This is definitely kinda of like picking your poison or drug, if you choose the gefs with the -EPO, yes, you may get get a better chance of a winter storm while it happens, and lots of cold, but once it breaks down, you get a ugly ugly pattern with a -PNA and a big southeast ridge, like last year, if you chose a -NAO to last, you are more likely gonna see more seasonal conditions with likely no winter weather, because the pacific pattern will remain a dumpster fire, but if you can get a -NAO to last on and start throwing some better things in the mix as time progresses, then things get interesting, so if your a person that’s super impatient, and want to see another early shot at some winter weather, you chose the -EPO the gefs shows, if your going for a better pattern at a more longer term, you want the -NAO to stay
 

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This is definitely kinda of like picking your poison or drug, if you choose the gefs with the -EPO, yes, you may get get a better chance of a winter storm while it happens, and lots of cold, but once it breaks down, you get a ugly ugly pattern with a -PNA and a big southeast ridge, like last year, if you chose a -NAO to last, you are more likely gonna see more seasonal conditions with likely no winter weather, because the pacific pattern will remain a dumpster fire, but if you can get a -NAO to last on and start throwing some better things in the mix as time progresses, then things get interesting, so if your a person that’s super impatient, and want to see another early shot at some winter weather, you chose the -EPO the gefs shows, if your going for a better pattern at a more longer term, you want the -NAO to stay
... and pray to high heaven for a 10 year miracle ...
 

pcbjr

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18Z GFS gives me a high of 80º and a low of 40º over the run ... right on target and right on schedule ... working like a Swiss watch ...
... now to set Little Ben and get up at quarter to 5:00 ...
 

Golf7575

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Hi guys. I think the -pna is and will hurt us for a while. Im assuming its related to the mjo going into unfavorable phases is my guess. Maybe someone can chime in and let us know if thats true or not. Its always a safe bet to focus on euro and eps with teleconnections most of the time, but not all the time.
 

Tarheel1

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On the 18z GFS, the apocalyptic rainmageddon Thanksgiving storm, doesn’t even exist anymore, not a drop of rain on Thursday in the Carolinas! What a horrible model!
 
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Snowman63

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18Z GFS gives me a high of 80º and a low of 40º over the run ... right on target and right on schedule ... working like a Swiss watch ...
... now to set Little Ben and get up at quarter to 5:00 ...
I love N. Florida and with temps like that this time of the year, it makes for a great place to live. Actually, 40° is a little chilly for the Sunshine state this early, but still very pleasant.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Interesting.. 🤔, while the gfs showed a interesting setup at hour 300 (yes hour 300 so it’s unlikely) with a sheared wave in the gulf, that look at H5 really matches its own ensemble with that -EPO, something to watch if your looking for a early season winter storm setup, but ofc this is long range so it will change 90688882-F3BD-495D-8CD2-E18F7DEE9B3F.jpeg DB677A0B-CD29-45F5-9240-EE292256E83B.jpeg 8D161223-9698-43FF-B760-484158A1D338.jpeg
 

Golf7575

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This message is for Ollie. Do you think mid December on will be our best opportunity for a more favorable pattern for cold and snow/ice? Just wondering buddy.
 

Jessy89

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The first 1-2 weeks of December has been good the last two years. Therefore that timeframe is worth watching.


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Ollie Williams

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This message is for Ollie. Do you think mid December on will be our best opportunity for a more favorable pattern for cold and snow/ice? Just wondering buddy.
For the first week of December the MJO looks to have no real effect, so I don’t think that would have any real drive, but early indications point it to going into the colder phases in the LR, but don’t expect anything

I do find most Interesting, is the modeled setup in the Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO) and it’s potential to go into the negative phases, seen below

GFS

The only problem, I can see is if that High over Alaska moves too far west, a -PNA may form, forcing HP over the east. It’s not too far off from giving us a SER.

I think the pattern still bears watching, you live in Arkansas, so luckily you have a decent taking verbatim from the GEFS. Luckily, Believe it or not, we need the SER to come in so It can ever so slightly bring wintery energy from the north into the south. Otherwise the storm will stay north . We typically need a +PNA, but It’s more so a pattern for cold than snow.

Bottom line: if you’re hoping for snow, you probably will have to deal the the SER, with any hopes of getting suppression. If you like cold, Hug the GEFS for now. I wouldn’t get too excited about snow though. It’s not as big a signal as last December was.


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SD

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If I lived along or north of a line from okc to dc I would be pumped for the first 2 weeks of December. I still think there is a window where we could see something sneak into our region but areas just to our north look like they could do well in what might become a gradient pattern

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GaStorm

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For the first week of December the MJO looks to have no real effect, so I don’t think that would have any real drive, but early indications point it to going into the colder phases in the LR, but don’t expect anything

I do find most Interesting, is the modeled setup in the Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO) and it’s potential to go into the negative phases, seen below

GFS

The only problem, I can see is if that High over Alaska moves too far west, a -PNA may form, forcing HP over the east. It’s not too far off from giving us a SER.

I think the pattern still bears watching, you live in Arkansas, so luckily you have a decent taking verbatim from the GEFS. Luckily, Believe it or not, we need the SER to come in so It can ever so slightly bring wintery energy from the north into the south. Otherwise the storm will stay north . We typically need a +PNA, but It’s more so a pattern for cold than snow.

Bottom line: if you’re hoping for snow, you probably will have to deal the the SER, with any hopes of getting suppression. If you like cold, Hug the GEFS for now. I wouldn’t get too excited about snow though. It’s not as big a signal as last December was.


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We can always sneak in a good CAD setup with a -EPO. Maybe an ice threat before we look at snow towards January?
 
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