pcbjr
Member
Glad my kids are grown and you're not reading them bedtime stories ...
In all seriousness, we have to just all calm down until after Christmas ...
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
In all seriousness, we have to just all calm down until after Christmas ...
NoSnowATL
Member
pcbjr
Member
You mean we need to wait until it’s actually Winter?
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Hmmmm ... now that is an interesting thought ...
... along with, perhaps, a pattern change that might happen in 6 weeks ...
When we are chasing 384 hour -NAOs in late Feb, what will be the excuse?You mean we need to wait until it’s actually Winter?
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I hit 29 this morning! Winning
pcbjr
Member
Maybe that you got it all in January?
NoSnowATL
Member
It may not get above freezing in Nashville on Tuesday. Pretty incredible for Nov 12th.
NoSnowATL
Member
Nothing crazy but comfortable temps to Thanksgiving.
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this is still pretty impressive for early mid november
Agreed, but I'd way rather have it showing up than not. Maybe, just maybe we can see a recurrence of it in winter for a change, instead of the other usual +NAO pattern. Then, maybe it can be helpful when we do get a more favorable general pattern supporting cold on our side of the globe.
North Carolina got 12km NAM’D
Interesting enough the SREF model plumes at 21z has more snowy members ... HRRR long range also looks like it could run for glory
Golf7575
Member
Do you have a link for the extended HRRR? I have not ever been able to find it.
ICON looking much better and temps really close
Here’s 2m temps and precipitation trends over the last 2 runs
Here’s 2m temps and precipitation trends over the last 2 runs
Jessy89
Member
I haven’t had much time to play around with this site, but Alicia Bentley has something for the new rap and HRRR, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/rapv5_hrrrv4/comp/
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The 0z ICON would have been a colder run during that time frame if the high was over Southeastern Canada/Northeast US. If there was going to be snow out of this system, the southern edge of the PV would need to be reaching the OH River, which in that case, the upper south would be getting more snow. I doubt that PV will come further south due to heights building east. If any frozen precip, it will most likely be freezing rain.
The 00z GEFS has increased snowfall means again in North Carolina .. some folks could be in for a surprise in the piedmont ... Charlotte looks like the front comes close by 8-12 pm and strikes with cold before the heating of the day can get its act together ... will the cold finally outpace the precip this time?????
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 0z & 6z GEFS are night and day in the longer term wrt sensible impacts here in the CONUS.
Interestingly, the 0z GEFS is actually how most Decembers w/ a +EPO/+SCAND/-NAO have played out.
Those Decembers ended up torching the E US, & notice none of these years were significant NINOs.
Interestingly, the 0z GEFS is actually how most Decembers w/ a +EPO/+SCAND/-NAO have played out.
Those Decembers ended up torching the E US, & notice none of these years were significant NINOs.
MichaelJ
Member
I generally wait until the last 10 days of the month runs before I start taking the models too seriously about the following months outlook. As for the CFSV2, I wait until the first 10 days of that month before I pay it any attention . 