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Pattern Nippy November

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we're usually spared the worse of the "torch" or mild wx when it does happen in a NINO Dec. I'd still definitely take near normal temps in late Nov/early Dec.

View attachment 26167
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A near 1981-2010 normal averaged out over DJF would be fantastic compared to the last few winters. Also, lets face it: our true normals are now a fair bit warmer than 1981-2010 averages, regardless, and they'll be updated soon. So, a normal winter by 1981-2010 standards would in essence now be a pretty cold winter.
 
GaWx said:
A near 1981-2010 normal averaged out over DJF would be fantastic compared to the last few winters. Also, lets face it: our true normals are now a fair bit warmer than 1981-2010 averages, regardless, and they'll be updated soon. So, a normal winter by 1981-2010 standards would in essence now be a pretty cold winter.
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#2,090
 
Agreed with several posts above regarding a winter cancel. Relax folks. The southeast is all about threading that proverbial needle. We never have sustained cold. Our most memorable winter weather events are often preceded by warmth.

I like the look of a wetter winter anyday with the right timing of a strong high and storm track over a dry and colder modeled winter.
 
Changing the base period does make a slight difference. Well AN is still well AN though. Maybe a neutral winter 20 years ago is slightly BN now.
618AF150-DDBF-4E56-BE24-AF005E468D9B.png1FBA7972-25B5-4B6B-A421-1F86DCCA73A9.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's nice and all but operational models hold literally no value at this range because we're well outside the e-folding scale of synoptic-scale waves which is on the order of a few days to a week or so.
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We need more lithium crystals ... warp speed Webb ... ;)
 
Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January & we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened.

In short, if I was a betting man, I'd be selling on this winter until at least late Dec (or probably the whole month) and buying by mid January & of course February (for obvious reasons). Even with as much pessimism as I've shown on here lately towards December potentially being a dud, I've definitely been under the impression that we may not have to wait til February to truly reap the benefits of being in a NINO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January & we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened.

In short, if I was a betting man, I'd be selling on this winter until at least late Dec (or probably the whole month) and buying by mid January & of course February (for obvious reasons). Even with as much pessimism as I've shown on here lately towards December potentially being a dud, I've definitely been under the impression that we may not have to wait til February to truly reap the benefits of being in a NINO.
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:cool:
Bingo!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January & we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened.

In short, if I was a betting man, I'd be selling on this winter until at least late Dec (or probably the whole month) and buying by mid January & of course February (for obvious reasons). Even with as much pessimism as I've shown on here lately towards December potentially being a dud, I've definitely been under the impression that we may not have to wait til February to truly reap the benefits of being in a NINO.
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Speaking of the SSWE, gefs looks even better with more significant warming, ofc it’s gonna change time to time but there’s definitely a signal 63003AB5-B617-47F9-BD26-F764B04F80DE.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Speaking of the SSWE, gefs looks even better with more significant warming, ofc it’s gonna change time to time but there’s definitely a signal View attachment 26174
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Yep. Imo, we’re about 3-4 weeks or so ahead of schedule vs the canonical nino progression, we usually don’t see a sswe get going until about late dec in most ninos. This also seems to imply a flip to a colder pattern in Jan instead of Feb as we often see. We will definitely revisit this in a few weeks.
I’d personally much rather have a jammin January than Fab Feb for once.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep. Imo, we’re about 3-4 weeks or so ahead of schedule vs the canonical nino progression, we usually don’t see a sswe get going until about late dec in most ninos. This also seems to imply a flip to a colder pattern in Jan instead of Feb as we often see. We will definitely revisit this in a few weeks
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I feel like we, in comparison to last year, if every variable were exactly the same, are having these changes flip, a few weeks earlier that last year. We saw the October cool down earlier and the November warmup looks to be much earlier that last year. I’m still pessimistic that we see a colder winter, taking comparison to last winter, not having the LR differences pointed out to me. With that being said, Webb, what are some of the major differences we have going for us this year, that we didn’t have last year, that’s leading to you “chipper” optimism?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep. Imo, we’re about 3-4 weeks or so ahead of schedule vs the canonical nino progression, we usually don’t see a sswe get going until about late dec in most ninos. This also seems to imply a flip to a colder pattern in Jan instead of Feb as we often see. We will definitely revisit this in a few weeks.
I’d personally much rather have a jammin January than Fab Feb for once.
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:cool:;)
Bingo 2 ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we're usually spared the worse of the "torch" or mild wx when it does happen in a NINO Dec. I'd still definitely take near normal temps in late Nov/early Dec.

View attachment 26167
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Remember, red in the Yukon, is still about 35 degrees colder than we ever get down here, so make lemonade!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I feel like we, in comparison to last year, if every variable were exactly the same, are having these changes flip, a few weeks earlier that last year. We saw the October cool down earlier and the November warmup looks to be much earlier that last year. I’m still pessimistic that we see a colder winter, taking comparison to last winter, not having the LR differences pointed out to me. With that being said, Webb, what are some of the major differences we have going for us this year, that we didn’t have last year, that’s leading to you “chipper” optimism?
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As mentioned earlier along w/ the stratospheric warming event which appears to be potentially on the horizon unusually early in the winter, the timing of this year's subseasonal tropical forcing appears to be a few weeks ahead of last year and is hinting at a return to a more favorable pattern perhaps as soon as the first half of January instead of Feb (as is often the case).

Despite the +IOD which is often a harbinger of an early winter torch, this year actually looks like a legitimate modoki NINO w/ dateline forcing unlike last winter. Dateline forcing (in blue/purple shading over the central equatorial Pacific) favors more frequent -NAOs.

uyhRqpflfz.png

As result in part from said dateline forcing in addition to a minor, secondary-tertiary assist from solar activity, we've seen a stronger -NAO in the mid-late fall this year and it's being reflected in the SST configuration over the North Atlantic. This positive tripole you see in the composite below will thermally damp the waves in the North Atlantic storm track such that they modestly reinforce the -NAO which is of course another favorable sign.
Io4ewl76p2.png

All told, I definitely like this winter more than last year as a whole for reasons stated above.

However, I remain extremely pessimistic regarding December because the large-scale signaling all seems to be pointing towards a mild or very mild pattern this time around. Thereafter, based on the information noted in earlier comments, I think we have a good shot to turn our fortunes around just in time for peak snowfall climo in early-mid January.

We shall see what happens.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As mentioned earlier along w/ the stratospheric warming event which appears to be potentially on the horizon unusually early in the winter, the timing of this year's subseasonal tropical forcing appears to be a few weeks ahead of last year and is hinting at a return to a more favorable pattern perhaps as soon as the first half of January instead of Feb (as is often the case).

Despite the +IOD which is often a harbinger of an early winter torch, this year actually looks like a legitimate modoki NINO w/ dateline forcing unlike last winter. Dateline forcing (in blue/purple shading over the central equatorial Pacific) favors more frequent -NAOs.

View attachment 26175

As result in part from said dateline forcing in addition to a minor, secondary-tertiary assist from solar activity, we've seen a stronger -NAO in the mid-late fall this year and it's being reflected in the SST configuration over the North Atlantic. This positive tripole you see in the composite below will thermally damp the waves in the North Atlantic storm track such that they modestly reinforce the -NAO which is of course another favorable sign.
View attachment 26176

All told, I definitely like this winter more than last year as a whole for reasons stated above.

However, I remain extremely pessimistic regarding December because the large-scale signaling all seems to be pointing towards a mild or very mild pattern this time around. Thereafter, based on the information noted in earlier comments, I think we have a good shot to turn our fortunes around just in time for peak snowfall climo in early-mid January.

We shall see what happens.
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I wish I knew a quarter of what you know
 
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