• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

Congrats to @pcbjr and Hogtown for having a low last night as cold or colder than all reporting stations in GA as far north as the Atlanta area!
 
None of this screams torch to me. I mean, I can certainly see our string of above normal Decembers makes us nervous. But looking at our favorite indexes, I don't see anything that is pointing to an all out torch for the whole month. Will we see some AN days? Almost certainly. Will we be as cold, anomaly-wise as November? Probably not. Anyway....

Indexes.jpg

MJO.gif

EPO1.jpg

And here's the CFS for January. Not too shabby, especially compared to what it looked like a few weeks ago.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_2.png
 
Rain Cold said:
None of this screams torch to me. I mean, I can certainly see our string of above normal Decembers makes us nervous. But looking at our favorite indexes, I don't see anything that is pointing to an all out torch for the whole month. Will we see some AN days? Almost certainly. Will we be as cold, anomaly-wise as November? Probably not. Anyway....

View attachment 26136

View attachment 26137

View attachment 26138

And here's the CFS for January. Not too shabby, especially compared to what it looked like a few weeks ago.

View attachment 26139
Click to expand...

Yeah I’m not seeing the models hone in on a long term torch pattern setting up in the extended. Sure, we can have 3 days with a ridge over the SE but when I think “torch”, I think of an extended period of above normal temps (extended being 15-20 days at minimum)... until models agree on a parameter that would all but guarantee a pattern lock for torch, I remain optimistic for December.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Yeah I’m not seeing the models hone in on a long term torch pattern setting up in the extended. Sure, we can have 3 days with a ridge over the SE but when I think “torch”, I think of an extended period of above normal temps (extended being 15-20 days at minimum)... until models agree on a parameter that would all but guarantee a pattern lock for torch, I remain optimistic for December.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5331200.png
 
I don't post often. Mostly lurk quietly checking in to get both SR and LR pattern information from some of the knowledgeable posters on this board. I find myself shaking my head on a regular basis though at the doom and gloom that can come with every unfavorable model or ensemble run. It appears that happened again this weekend with a few model runs. This led to calls for:

* December "torch" which now seems to be a term used by some for a model that shows even a even a few days AN.
* "Maybe January/February things will be more favorable"
* "This is looking just like last year."

I truly do not understand how adults (if we are all actually adults here) can have such emotional swings in opinion and emotion based on something that updates itself every 6 - 12 hours and has proved to be consistently inaccurate. Anyway, see below from Kirk Mellish. While I sometimes chuckle at his tactics and methods for verifying his accuracy in forecasting for the entire Atlanta area, I do believe him to be a very skilled met. His posts are often very informative based on no hype, but lots of substance. His blog this morning reinforces what many were thinking before weekend models let many here to add more Bermuda shorts and flip flops to their Christmas list.

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/weather-notebook-looking-ahead/IYNT9HqQf6ZkWApwa6rZpL/
 
Batman said:
I don't post often. Mostly lurk quietly checking in to get both SR and LR pattern information from some of the knowledgeable posters on this board. I find myself shaking my head on a regular basis though at the doom and gloom that can come with every unfavorable model or ensemble run. It appears that happened again this weekend with a few model runs. This led to calls for:

* December "torch" which now seems to be a term used by some for a model that shows even a even a few days AN.
* "Maybe January/February things will be more favorable"
* "This is looking just like last year."

I truly do not understand how adults (if we are all actually adults here) can have such emotional swings in opinion and emotion based on something that updates itself every 6 - 12 hours and has proved to be consistently inaccurate. Anyway, see below from Kirk Mellish. While I sometimes chuckle at his tactics and methods for verifying his accuracy in forecasting for the entire Atlanta area, I do believe him to be a very skilled met. His posts are often very informative based on no hype, but lots of substance. His blog this morning reinforces what many were thinking before weekend models let many here to add more Bermuda shorts and flip flops to their Christmas list.

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/weather-notebook-looking-ahead/IYNT9HqQf6ZkWApwa6rZpL/
Click to expand...
Very good info
 
KyloG said:
As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

View attachment 26140
Click to expand...

That Aleutian ridge does look like its trended stronger on the eps. Good point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
KyloG said:
As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

View attachment 26140
Click to expand...
I’m not a fan of the pacific pattern, we’ve still seen very mild Decembers with a -NAO (2012-13 for ex).
 
KyloG said:
As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

View attachment 26140
Click to expand...
Subseasonal hints are that this negative nao is going to decay and reverse probably some time during the 2nd week of December ish, the return of an Aleutian ridge, Indian Ocean convection, and positive North American mountain torque are all red flags that this negative nao will be on borrowed time in early December and it’s literally the opposite forcing we had about 2 weeks ago before this -NAO showed up. I’m extremely confident (probably 9 out of 10) a really mild/touchy pattern is going to rear it’s ugly head and show up at some pt especially for the northern us, lakes, & south-central Canada, & maybe for us, the fact that our cool pattern keeps getting kicked back in time and we’re seeing a milder pattern appear in the models closer to verification is a subtle hint. Remember when the models showed a cold end to Nov? Being replaced by a SE US ridge.

Persistent Indian Ocean forcing in a Nino December is a recipe for disaster... prove me wrong, because I’d love to be, im so sick and tired of warm Decembers
 
Webberweather53 said:
As noted earlier, we're probably about to encounter a period w/ enhanced tropical forcing over the West-Central Indian Ocean probably for the foreseeable future (note the -VP200a (green shading) over 30-60E longitudes in this hovmoller)

View attachment 26117


Lagged temperature composites paint an all too familiar, & grim outlook for December. Please note these are pentad (or 5-day) averaged positive lagged composites of 850mb temp anomalies over the US w/ a 0.5C contour interval and they're irrespective of whether or not the MJO continued w/ amplitude in subsequent phases.

For instance lag = 1 (top left panel) equates to the first pentad or about day 5, lag = 2 day 10, etc thus by the time you get to the bottom right panel for each lagged temp composite you're at day +25 from the MJO being in "x" phase.

In this instance, lag = 0 for phase 2 generally corresponds to Nov 20th, lag = 1 nov 25th, etc basically taking us to roughly the mid point of December &/or the winter solstice. The generally clue you should be getting here is basically the subseasonal base state favors a milder than normal pattern thru the middle portions of December, surely there may be intermittent cold periods in there, but I tend to generally agree w/ this idea for now anyways. The one thing that we currently have these composites don't near lag 0 is a west-based -NAO, which may allow us to at least remain seasonable & perhaps sneak a winter storm in until the -NAO has finally broken down.

In all honesty, I'd really love for this to be dead wrong and for us to be colder than normal & score a big dog in Dec. We'll see what happens.
View attachment 26119
View attachment 26118
Click to expand...

Nowhere in your incessant rambling did I understand a single thing with the exception of the words “the, and, of, is, & a”.
 
It almost feels like the past 8 Decembers have created an assumption that December 2019 will be warmer than normal as well. While that does seem likely (Niñoish atmospheric state even though ENSO is officially neutral, and El Niño Decembers tend to be warm), nothing is set in stone at this point. We do seem to following a similar pattern to the years with an AN December though.
 
Fwiw the GEFS has a mean for western and central NC through hr 180. Maybe some members catching onto the ULL development, or could just be one or two members skewing the mean.
Screenshot 2019-11-18 at 12.04.33 PM.png
 
Oh yeah bring on the warmth.

520572b2ec152db3eb4441067a3d3af3.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top