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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

ForsythSnow said:
LOL. You would go for a low resolution model over a high one? All joking aside, it isn't that good. I'd use the HRRR and WRF products as well as the RGEM and NAM in combo. I'm putting more weight on the HRRR this go because I don't get snow and also it did better than the NAM with its precip last storm.
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Cut at least 1/3rd of the precipitation off the NAM in a situation (amplified situation) like this, but use the temperature profiles.
 
@Storm5 WRF-NMM wants to bring you some flurries

wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_seus_35.png
 
Stormlover said:
he's going by old data, not the newest...watch that increase
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If he goes by the newest he might cut that down. Freezing rain looks to be the biggest issue. Someone in North Alabama will catch the dry slot and it wont be pretty

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Storm5 said:
If he goes by the newest he might cut that down. Freezing rain looks to be the biggest issue. Someone in North Alabama will catch the dry slot and it wont be pretty

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No, trend is very good for here. Good feeling about this.
 
Stormlover said:
Sure it is, many runs have given that area very very little. Here is the 12Z to show the difference.
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Omg come on storm only 2-3 runs of the NAM last 36-48 hours have showed little to no accumulation in NW AL

2 or 3!

At least 3 runs spit out 6-8" or more in NW AL the 18z run was nothing big or different (or big) compared to some totals its put out. I'm not going to post them and eat up bandwidth/waste my time but everyone can go to TT (I used the 12k NAM) and view previous model runs to verify.
 
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Flurry said:
Radar starting to light up just north of Dallas up to the Red River...Small area of a few counties under a WWA...Some areas are sleet, but temps are above freezing....All moving East...Didn't know if this was expected or not?? Paging Brent...Paging Brent
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FWD had a WWA out all day but its falling apart and the advisory is now cancelled not much to write home about in Dallas
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Omg come on storm only 2-3 runs of the NAM last 36-48 hours have showed little to no accumulation in NW AL

2 or 3!

At least 3 runs spit out 6-8" or more in NW AL the 18z run was nothing big or different (or big) compared to some totals its put out. I'm not going to post them and eat up bandwidth/waste my time but everyone can go to TT (I used the 12k NAM) and view previous model runs to verify.
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Huge difference in 18Z and 12Z. Just the truth.
 

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Stormlover said:
Huge difference in 18Z and 12Z. Just the truth.
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You said
Stormlover said:
Wow, NAM big hit for NW Ala..big improvement
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Not what you originally said now you want to time stamp it 18z vs 12z and wiggle around it... JMHO you were trying to hype it up and to me at least read like "breaking news"...Fine ok...But like I quoted to you earlier there was nothing new here

NAM has shown a clear trend over the last couple days for possible wintry impacts and accumulation for NW AL...

Now spin it as you wish (your good at it) but I'm done with this subject...
 
Hrrr is ugly for North Alabama. Hardly any frozen precip

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