from MRX's latest AFD:
Cold
front will drop through the area on Tuesday, bringing the next
chance for precipitation. Confidence is high that this will be an
all snow event, but there`s still some model disagreement with
regards to the timing of the frontal passage and the amount of
moisture available. The
GFS is a bit faster with mainly a daytime
passage on Tuesday, while the
ECMWF is a bit slower with more of an
afternoon/evening frontal passage. The amount of
moisture will
impact just how much snow the area will see. The drier
GFS has
moisture fizzling out as the cold
front approaches, and would result
in less than an inch of snow in the valley, with up to 2" at the
higher elevations of northern Plateau, Smokies, and SW Virginia. In
contrast, the slightly wetter
ECMWF still has less than an inch in
the valley, but shows up to 2" along the southern plateau and the
Smokies, and up to 3" across the northern plateau and SW Virginia.
All this to say we will have to continue to monitor model trends
through the weekend.
