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Pattern May-hem

Webberweather53 said:
Man that was a close call for you!
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Unfortunately it looks like there's plenty left to come ... :eek:

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Just think it's funny that the watch is for western SC and GA but the SPC has the enhanced risk in eastern SC and GA.
 
Tarheel1 said:
As per usual, the clouds are hangin tough! Instability may keep severe at bay, in the Upstate
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As of 1000 AM EDT Wednesday: Was just in the middle of the morning
update and was going to make the case for why we would probably need
a Watch by this afternoon, when SPC came out with the coordination
for the new Tornado Watch. So, this is timely. Convection upstream
continues to grow and evolve, with more storms acquiring supercell
characteristics over NW Georgia on a trajectory to reach the NC mtns
in the next hour or two. The morning raob from FFC shows a fcst CAPE
around 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 50kt. The mesoscale model
output looks compelling, with supercellular echoes tracking along
the I-85 corridor through late afternoon/early evening as suggested
by maxima of updraft helicity. So often these environments fail to
produce much in the way of severe weather, but this one looks
different as we are unwedged and have enough thin spots in the
overcast to allow for some destabilization. It also helps that we
can see the supercells developing upstream as of 14Z. The entire
fcst area will be in the threat area for severe storms and
tornadoes. The CLT metro area will be last to see the threat, but
the decision was made to put the whole area in the Watch now, rather
than have to do it when the storms were bearing down later this
afternoon.

GSP says they think we are in for a rough time. Highest threat along I-85.
 
mcd0826.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Areas affected...extreme southern GA into northern FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 261...

Valid 241426Z - 241600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 261 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong, locally damaging winds and tornadoes will be
possible into the afternoon hours across far southern GA into
northern FL.

DISCUSSION...The tornado threat will continue across WW 261.
Regional 88-D VAD wind profiles continue to indicate favorable shear
environment for low-level rotation with effective SRH values near
200 m2/s2. Most recently, a cell over Putnam and St. Johns counties
in northeast FL has shown strong rotation at times. A larger mass of
thunderstorms further west moving into far southern GA and onshore
the northwestern FL coast may pose more of a damaging wind threat
given messier convective mode. Regardless, environmental parameters
will remain favorable for strong winds and tornadoes into the
afternoon hours. A southward extension of the watch into central FL
may be needed in the short term as storms approach the western FL
coast near the watch expiration time of 19z. However, a new watch
may be needed this afternoon across parts of central FL.

Across the eastern FL Peninsula, a low-end threat will continue for
a few more hours as the surface cold front remains to the west of
the area. Cells moving into this area have shown some signs of
intensifying over the last 30 minutes, so have no suggested
clearance of counties across this area just yet. A very moist
boundary layer remains in place despite earlier convection and a
short-term severe threat will persist across this area.
 
JHS said:
I'd expect a watch soon for south and central GA into southern and eastern SC soon. Storms starting to go up around Macon GA now.
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Same here then a watch for the remainder of SC/NC later this afternoon.
 
That's a very nasty storm about 20 miles east of Dalton GA. 2 tornado warnings with it.
 
metwannabe said:
You think the wedge will scour out as forecast or will it possibly hinder development? Looks to be hanging tough up this way....
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I don't see the wedge even present, only tons of clouds. I also see that the treat is caused mainly by the low pressure's wind direction. I would watch for any tornadoes if you are in the watch area, but I don't see major severe weather as a threat with these clouds unless they break.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't see the wedge even present, only tons of clouds. I also see that the treat is caused mainly by the low pressure's wind direction. I would watch for any tornadoes if you are in the watch area, but I don't see major severe weather as a threat with these clouds unless they break.
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Maybe it's not a wedge per se but I've got NE winds and DP's still in the low 60's (just crawled out of the upper 50's within the last hour or so)... I'm not currently in a watch if I was I would watch for tornadoes. I still think things take off here later today especially along that boundary but I've also seen serious severe threats get tempered significantly by pesky low clouds/drizzle/ne winds that didn't move out as forecast.
 
Usually we need some clearing and sun to spark things here. But there was that tornado yesterday in Autreyville that happened when it was rainy all day and we weren't even under any kind of watch.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Usually we need some clearing and sun to spark things here. But there was that tornado yesterday in Autreyville that happened when it was rainy all day and we weren't even under any kind of watch.
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It does look like the cloud deck is thinning and some breaks starting to show up just to our south on visible, we got plenty of time to really destabilize unfortunately....
 
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