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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

SD said:
Gfs has some semblance of the ridge through day 16 but corn exports should be at an all time high with the rain in the plains! I do think we see this pattern reverse as we get into June with the heat ridge moving back into the SW/southern plains region but building dry conditions and heat overhead early in/before summer makes me skeptical that we break the cycle

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Either that or June could be like June 2012 was, very hot and dry with numerous triple digit days.
 
SouthATLwx said:
gfs-KATL-gefs_downscaled-8072800.png


ecmwf-KATL-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-8051200.png


cmc-KATL-daily_tmin_tmax-8051200.png


Source:

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/heat-wave-coming/yrMNdTXM9xU9nvIF5UtTNK/
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The CDN ensemble has the strongest cold bias. So, it is no surprise that it is not nearly as hot as the GEFS, which itself usually has a less strong cold bias.
 
GaWx said:
The CDN ensemble has the strongest cold bias. So, it is no surprise that it is not nearly as hot as the GEFS, which itself usually has a less strong cold bias.
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GFS has been on the ball with temps lately.

That being said, this was from the 06z run, which is the most bullish with the extent of the heat so far. The 12z run was a step back.
 
GaWx said:
The CDN ensemble has the strongest cold bias. So, it is no surprise that it is not nearly as hot as the GEFS, which itself usually has a less strong cold bias.
Click to expand...
Much prefer a warm bias in winter to this ... buttttt, it's still a few days away ...
 
Taking a look at that 06z run in detail, what's impressive to me is that large swaths of CA / NV / AZ would spend several days with daytime temps in the 40s - 60s.
 
SD said:
Gfs has some semblance of the ridge through day 16 but corn exports should be at an all time high with the rain in the plains! I do think we see this pattern reverse as we get into June with the heat ridge moving back into the SW/southern plains region but building dry conditions and heat overhead early in/before summer makes me skeptical that we break the cycle

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NW flow MCSs perform like clippers do for me! ?7046713C-8BA8-4D06-97F5-CB48C395B64D.png
 
SD said:
Yeah feel like we have done poorly over the last few years with these and they used to be more prevalent.

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Yep, really thought the one last night would at least spark some convection but trash dews and mixing kill it for us, maybe better coverage tommorow with way better low level moisture
 
SD said:
Yeah feel like we have done poorly over the last few years with these and they used to be more prevalent.

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Bet we will see a few of these this year.
 
Likely got a wedge on the ground in KS, funny how some people called today off thinking nothing was gonna happen, today has been a somewhat big day for tornadoes, lol sharp dryline + dryline bulge + strong negativity tilted trof = busting the Cap and more isolated supercells with the chance of tornadoes, some violent, heres that rotation in KS 9ADEFEFB-174B-445F-BED5-51B9A2D88938.jpeg
 
Holy ----, what a supercell, confirmed large tornado with this aswell, but man this is a textbook supercell right here
 
I just can’t help but think of the greensburg KS tornado back in 2007 when looking at this, hope and praying it can steer clear of anyone
 
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