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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s boom or bust like you said, these big troughs especially in May can be a bad thing, having to much convection development at once thus creating a MCS, 500mb pattern somewhat similar to a 1955 setup if I’m not mistaken, anyways this sounding if things remain discrete supports very violent tornadoes, definitely supports a Moore caliber tornado, definitely a decent change of wind from sfc-1km and 3km AGL
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Yea this is going to be a case of pick your poison the messier storm mode option w/ favorable cold pool orientation wrt low-level shear vectors would lead to an extremely intense MCS, the other option is discrete, very intense supercells w/ the potential for violent, long-track tornadoes.
 
When even the cold biased GEFS (12Z) has low 90s at KATL 5/23-27 and mid to upper 90s in much of S and C GA, far N FL, and parts of C/S SC, you can say a heatwave is very likely coming with at or near alltime May highs. A few highs in the 100-102 range cannot be ruled out in places like Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Savannah, Waycross and Jacksonville.
 
Irrespective of what actually happens early next week in the southern Plains, this is about as close to a perfect z500 pattern as you'll see for a tornado outbreak in TX/OK.

ecmwf_z500a_us_5.png
 
GaWx said:
When even the cold biased GEFS (12Z) has low 90s at KATL 5/23-27 and mid to upper 90s in much of S and C GA, far N FL, and parts of C/S SC, you can say a heatwave is very likely coming with at or near alltime May highs. A few highs in the 100-102 range cannot be ruled out in places like Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Savannah, Waycross and Jacksonville.
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Last year both GFS showed ridiculous temps in the 105-115 degree range a few times and only to verify 10-15 cooler. They are both just off with temps, winter or summer
 
Tarheel1 said:
Last year both GFS showed ridiculous temps in the 105-115 degree range a few times and only to verify 10-15 cooler. They are both just off with temps, winter or summer
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The GFS already had a run with 108-111 for parts of S GA and far N FL for late this month. That will likely end up about 10 too hot but even that is near alltime May highs for some. But the GEFS isn't normally warm biased.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hopefully the Euro is out to lunch here. This is big yikes for most of us.
View attachment 19608
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The 12Z Euro is similarly very hot. Alltime May records will likely be challenged in places. Hottest in May on record:

Jacksonville 100
Gainesville 101
Ocala 102
Tallahassee 102
Atlanta 97
Macon 99
Augusta 100
Savannah 101
Charleston 99
Columbia 101
GSP 100
Charlotte 98
RDU 99
Montgomery 99
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is similarly very hot. Alltime May records will likely be challenged in places. Hottest in May on record:

Jacksonville 100
Gainesville 101
Ocala 102
Tallahassee 102
Atlanta 97
Macon 99
Augusta 100
Savannah 101
Charleston 99
Columbia 101
GSP 100
Charlotte 98
RDU 99
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Ugh can we not. I've actually been enjoying surprisingly pleasant weather lately in the heat/humidity capital of the US (Houston), looks like I'm about to pay the price for it when I come back to NC.
 
The 12Z EPS (not a warm biased model by any means) is in agreement that alltime May hot records will be challenged in much of the SE late next week into early the following week, especially for SE AL, N FL, much of GA/SC and S NC. It even has highs in the low 100s in some of E GA, N FL, and S SC on some of or all of 5/24-7! That's stupid hot. Nothing intelligent about it by any means.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS (not a warm biased model by any means) is in agreement that alltime May hot records will be challenged in much of the SE late next week into early the following week, especially for SE AL, N FL, much of GA/SC and S NC. It even has highs in the low 100s in some of E GA, N FL, and S SC on some of or all of 5/24-7! That's stupid hot. Nothing intelligent about it by any means.
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?????
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
wedges everywhere, and also gorilla hail, just saw a sounding on Monday that has a 3.8 SHIP
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Lmao yeah if things stay discrete this would end up being a huge wedgefest, the parameter space of pretty much everything is maxed out, can only recall the Apr 2011 outbreak in the SE US doing that. If we don't stay discrete the other primary option isn't much better (if at all) because we'd end up w/ a very intense MCS w/ straightline winds of 90+ mph possible.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS (not a warm biased model by any means) is in agreement that alltime May hot records will be challenged in much of the SE late next week into early the following week, especially for SE AL, N FL, much of GA/SC and S NC. It even has highs in the low 100s in some of E GA, N FL, and S SC on some of or all of 5/24-7! That's stupid hot. Nothing intelligent about it by any means.
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giphy.gif
 
metwannabe said:
That MCS is falling apart quickly now, I guess some boundaries and another disturbance this evening could trigger a few storms but I have my doubts..
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Mixing wins...dews only around 60 for most of the state even some ML cin in place. Not going to even get cumulus in this setup right now. Mixing out of dewpoints will continue to be a problem through the weekend with the models showing afternoon dews only around 60 for most of us. Now early next week we may not see as much mixing and i wouldn't be surprised to see some rain around Monday afternoon

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SD said:
Mixing wins...dews only around 60 for most of the state even some ML cin in place. Not going to even get cumulus in this setup right now. Mixing out of dewpoints will continue to be a problem through the weekend with the models showing afternoon dews only around 60 for most of us. Now early next week we may not see as much mixing and i wouldn't be surprised to see some rain around Monday afternoon

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Playing out as expected! Drought begets drought!?46492331-FB54-4C59-88D2-53ACB1ABFE66.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Playing out as expected! Drought begets drought!View attachment 19611
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Gfs has some semblance of the ridge through day 16 but corn exports should be at an all time high with the rain in the plains! I do think we see this pattern reverse as we get into June with the heat ridge moving back into the SW/southern plains region but building dry conditions and heat overhead early in/before summer makes me skeptical that we break the cycle

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