Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

[Myfrotho704_]

The mountains do wonders for these things, in a bad way if you need rain!

Not necessarily, afternoon lee trough on eastern mountains can sometimes help to redevelop/trigger convection with a pattern dominated by a 500mb ridge, especially old boundaries left over, normally you get large amounts of CAPE but such little triggering in these setups along with some Capping which is why there’s flat cumulus most of the time in summer days, outflow boundary can easily break that, especially in a THETA-E ridge, and plus the MCS/outflow boundary isn’t coming from the west, but more from the north/northwest

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh, not bad
Good setup for strong pulse storms

 

[SD]

Not necessarily, afternoon lee trough on eastern mountains can sometimes help to redevelop/trigger convection with a pattern dominated by a 500mb ridge, especially old boundaries left over, normally you get large amounts of CAPE but such little triggering in these setups along with some Capping which is why there’s flat cumulus most of the time in summer days, outflow boundary can easily break that, especially in a THETA-E ridge, and plus the MCS/outflow boundary isn’t coming from the west, but more from the north/northwest

Couple things about tomorrow first is the initial wave that will be moving in around mid morning. That should leave behind an outflow boundary somewhere and may help to moisten the mid levels. Second is moisture return. If we can get low level moisture to move in then we certainly could see our chances increase. If we mix out or are slow to recover there is really no chance.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Hot off the press...June/July/August map shows above normal precipitation for northern half of NC and points north. And above normal temps for everyone. NOAA

 

[SD]

Hot off the press...June/July/August map shows above normal precipitation for northern half of NC and points north. And above normal temps for everyone. NOAA

Does it look similar to this

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[Arcc]

Gotta love how storms can propagate on an outflow boundary and turn a day with low rain chances into a good round of storms.

 

[Tarheel1]

Sun angle, FTL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Couple things about tomorrow first is the initial wave that will be moving in around mid morning. That should leave behind an outflow boundary somewhere and may help to moisten the mid levels. Second is moisture return. If we can get low level moisture to move in then we certainly could see our chances increase. If we mix out or are slow to recover there is really no chance.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Hrrr really shows that area with a dewpoint minimum around central/eastern NC, and gets a good flow of higher DPs around western NC/SC, soundings are actually supportive of strong single cell/multicellular storms, and a tad bit of some organization to them if they managed to develop, also supports large hail with colder 500mb temps, high LI, steep mid level lapse rates, just depends on whether they fire

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wave Friday night looks more interesting as it heads into a environment already with decent low level moisture/MUcape

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Sun angle, FTLView attachment 19594

No matter what time of year it is, the sun angle always seems to find a way to screw the south.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

#Winning , also not often you see 60+ dbz core pop up on the hrrr sim radar, could be a few nasty hailers tommorow with steep mid level lapses, soundings do support hail as big as golf balls with a little bit elevated 0-6km bulk shear

 

[Tarheel1]

That she blows!

 

[Metwannabe]

Hmmm creeping closer

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Tarheel1]

That slip in the mountains of NC, gonna mess up my afternoon storms

 

[BHS1975]

HRDPS says we get it later.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BHS1975]

Dews already in the mid 60s, plenty of juice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brick Tamland]

HRDPS says we get it later.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hope it doesn't storm around here Saturday night. I'm going to the Durham Bulls game.

 

[Metwannabe]

That MCS is falling apart quickly now, I guess some boundaries and another disturbance this evening could trigger a few storms but I have my doubts..

 

[Webberweather53]

I'm chasing in the southern Plains May 20-21, I'm really stoked about this threat. Huge boom or bust potential wrt getting discrete supercells esp w/o much of a capping inversion in place (morning clouds from the preceding day's convection could aid in keeping coverage limited however). Extremely high CAPE, deep layer and low-level shear and extremely nice hodographs, backed surface winds, w/ a ton of forcing, this could really go either way. I've seen cases like this produce anything from the coveted "string of pearls" featuring a conveyor belt of discrete, intense supercells harboring strong tornadoes to rapid evolution into a giant MCS.

This sounding wasn't contaminated by convection either... Yikes lol

A 60 KT low-level jet coupled to 4000 CAPE, 500 0-1 km SRH, 40 knots of 0-1 km shear, & low LCLs with just your everyday supercell composite of 60 & effective sig tor of 11-12.

Deer god.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I'm chasing in the southern Plains May 20-21, I'm really stoked about this threat. Huge boom or bust potential wrt getting discrete supercells esp w/o much of a capping inversion in place (morning clouds from the preceding day's convection could aid in keeping coverage limited however). Extremely high CAPE, deep layer and low-level shear and extremely nice hodographs, backed surface winds, w/ a ton of forcing, this could really go either way. I've seen cases like this produce anything from the coveted "string of pearls" featuring a conveyor belt of discrete, intense supercells harboring strong tornadoes to rapid evolution into a giant MCS.

This sounding wasn't contaminated by convection either... Yikes lol

A 60 KT low-level jet coupled to 4000 CAPE, 500 0-1 km SRH, 40 knots of 0-1 km shear, & low LCLs with just your everyday supercell composite of 60 & effective sig tor of 11-12.

Deer god.

View attachment 19607

It’s boom or bust like you said, these big troughs especially in May can be a bad thing, having to much convection development at once thus creating a MCS, 500mb pattern somewhat similar to a 1955 setup if I’m not mistaken, anyways this sounding if things remain discrete supports very violent tornadoes, definitely supports a Moore caliber tornado, definitely a decent change of wind from sfc-1km and 3km AGL