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Pattern Marvelous March

I must admit here in ATL I'm not even holding on to the slightest glimmers of hope at this point. Rather watching for fun. I feel like, if anything, there might be a slight chance for a swath of light to moderate snow accums across parts of the NC piedmont or coastal plain, maybe parts of SC, once the low strengthens off the NC coast... but I think we can already stick a fork in this down here in GA and AL. NC might do the same in a couple days lol.
 
I was under the impression that these "cold pushes" have been overdone all season though, and we'd likely see more relaxation to allow a NW shift as we get closer... still okay to watch until 24 hours out, but eh.
 
I was under the impression that these "cold pushes" have been overdone all season though, and we'd likely see more relaxation to allow a NW shift as we get closer... still okay to watch until 24 hours out, but eh.

Yeah, that's why I think the chance for "some snow" is non-zero in NC and SC. But if the cold push is too overdone then this could hypothetically simply be rain for everyone.
 
The storm in New England that initially wasn't forecast to do much of anything and slide harmlessly out to sea will now attempt to bomb out and interact w/ our big PV lobe over SE Canada by about day 3, we'd need to see dramatic intensification of this storm in future runs and interaction with the vortex to even have any hope whatsoever.

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GFS actually has flurries now lol. It’s a small improvement.
View attachment 16978

What I’m wondering is whether we can get a band of snow to develop like some of the gefs ensemble members have picked up on, if that energy could just dive more SW or west just a tiny bit more, at least us in NC/SC can get a convective snow band to form, it’s evident by the sounding that it would be convective, but like you said it’s not to be expected atm
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Gotta be careful with blue showing up on 6 hour precipitation rate maps that follow storms/fronts. It’s cold enough for snow, but the model is using the 6 hour precip from the prior 6 hours. So the more likely situation is drizzle that dries up in the 6 hours prior and no frozen precip at all as it would be dry in the depicted time on the modeling...

That sounding has no moisture in it so there wouldn’t actually be anything to freeze


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UK back with a decent coastal.
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That Ukie map is massively different with the trough than any other model and if it was the GFS I wouldn't even give it a second glance.... but the UK is not horrible with it's forecast at the H5 level, can sometimes sniff something out. I'm probably like @Myfrotho704_ and being too optimistic but until it caves completely I'll continue to follow it, what else is there to follow? Lol
 
Gotta be careful with blue showing up on 6 hour precipitation rate maps that follow storms/fronts. It’s cold enough for snow, but the model is using the 6 hour precip from the prior 6 hours. So the more likely situation is drizzle that dries up in the 6 hours prior and no frozen precip at all as it would be dry in the depicted time on the modeling...

That sounding has no moisture in it so there wouldn’t actually be anything to freeze


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Yep that's a good point. Considering it was very light I didn't even bother looking at soundings to see what the moisture profile looks like. I only pull those out when there is something of substance to look at them for and so far there hasn't been in a few days for wave 2.
 
That Ukie map is massively different with the trough than any other model and if it was the GFS I wouldn't even give it a second glance.... but the UK is not horrible with it's forecast at the H5 level, can sometimes sniff something out. I'm probably like @Myfrotho704_ and being too optimistic but until it caves completely I'll continue to follow it, what else is there to follow? Lol

Cold rain? :D Seriously though it is interesting that the UK is showing this stronger coastal. We've seen with the stronger storm the NE is about to get how much the models have struggled with it. Here's what the GEFS showed 72 hours out for that storm. Notice a weak low near Bermuda...
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And now just 36 hours out we have this.
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Cold rain? :D Seriously though it is interesting that the UK is showing this stronger coastal. We've seen with the stronger storm the NE is about to get how much the models have struggled with it. Here's what the GEFS showed 72 hours out for that storm. Notice a weak low near Bermuda...
View attachment 17016

And now just 36 hours out we have this.
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If we do somehow get this thing back into play, what are temps looking like? Think I'm around 35 Monday night, then 21 Tuesday night
 
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
 
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
Can you put the lid back on that can or worms please? Thanks ;)
 
If we do somehow get this thing back into play, what are temps looking like? Think I'm around 35 Monday night, then 21 Tuesday night

A lot would depend on how far west the system comes, how amped it is and how far south the cold gets. If it comes west enough to bring decent qpf with it then temps will be warmer and we will need to see if we have enough cold for snow to work with... It's a fine line with this storm. There are a few stronger GEFS members that show rain changing to snow with a storm right along the SC/NC coast.
 
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.

March madness ?
 
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