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Severe March 30th severe weather threat

me no likey this sounding, curved hodo, decent sfc-750 hPa moisture, somewhat decent 3CAPE, one thing is tho is that 850 winds are a little bit on the low side, and there is somewhat of a “CAP” or warming of temps at around 700 hPa and low level lapse rates are trash686A8A2A-6E49-4482-865E-C67961840D78.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
me no likey this sounding, curved hodo, decent sfc-750 hPa moisture, somewhat decent 3CAPE, one thing is tho is that 850 winds are a little bit on the low side, and there is somewhat of a “CAP” or warming of temps at around 700 hPa and low level lapse rates are trashView attachment 18135
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If a storm breaks the cap during peak heating it wont have much to compete with and having modest shear it'll rotate.
 
Hrrr doesn’t look that threatening, it mixes out dewpoints throughout the day in areas with the better windshear and rises LCLs, also SIGSVR values are low, around 10000, indicate limiting factors, and also BRN shear values are below 100 ms/s2, I have found these values/measurements to be very good tools in past events
 
HRRR doesnt like the idea of a squall line, things are more broken up, best shear and instability mix will be northwest alabama it seems. With activity ramping up if it does around 4-8. Screenshot_20190330-070905_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190330-071007_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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These storms today that becomes supercells could have some good FFD/RFD bursts, with large hail, somewhat low helicity, still decent bulk shear, decent sfc moisture then drying Aloft argues that, like the spc mentioned tho there is a time where LCLs will drop, that time period really needs to be watched, along with a time period where the column moistens
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These storms today that becomes supercells could have some good FFD/RFD bursts, with large hail, somewhat low helicity, still decent bulk shear, decent sfc moisture then drying Aloft argues that, like the spc mentioned tho there is a time where LCLs will drop, that time period really needs to be watched, along with a time period where the column moistens
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Around 4-8 in my opinion will be prime time
 
Looks like a couple watches are about to go up.Screenshot_20190330-163623_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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This isnt related to this weather event but the thursday through friday weather event looks to be a good one. Been so focused on this one hadnt realized another severe event may be coming up.
 
This supercell keeps cycling with broad rotation, the further north it gets the better the shear wouldnt be suprised if it tightens up LCL heights aren't favorable though
Screenshot_20190330-180255_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20190330-180250_RadarScope.jpg
 
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